Over the last week or so, two billionaires have been killed in adventuring mishaps - one with the highly publicized implosion on a submarine, another on Sunday in a racing incident on a track. What makes these things interesting is what happens after their death, because whilst the money doesn't immediately divest, it could be that it isn't going to be managed in the same way, and of course, sharks will circle and look to take bites where they can. A decade in the future, what has changed?
Or perhaps, who has changed?
This is one of the things that a lot of people might not recognize on Hive, where they think that the whales who are whales, will always be so. But, that is not the case, because things happen and people's lives change. It might not be death, it might be something else, but eventually, everything gets divested - or locked forever. Because on Hive, this can happen, if keys are lost and an account locks. It is the same for Bitcoin, where the estimate is that around twenty percent is unrecoverable.
That amount only climbs.
But I wonder how the distribution changes over time through death of billionaires and whether on average, their families build on the wealth, sit on the wealth, or leak the wealth. Do they get relatively richer, stay the same, or get poorer? Are more opportunities created, or less?
There tends to be an "easy come, easy go" situation, where often, the ones who didn't earn the money end up spending more than they make, though this isn't always the case. However, it could be that there is less impetus to really dive into the family business when the amount of money involved is so large, it is unlikely it can ever all be spent. But, once in that financial echelon, it is almost impossible to lose it and let's be fair, how much work do they really need to do at that point, other than make sure they aren't being screwed over by embezzlers.
But, we are perhaps heading into an interesting time, because while we are expecting that the Boomer generation is going to start petering out, the majority of billionaires are also in this age group.
The median age of the world’s 3,194 billionaires is now 67 years old, data firm Altrata said in a report released Wednesday. Forty-two percent are over the age of 70, and fewer than 10% are under the age of 50.
This means that vast amounts of wealth, that are in the hands of some of the most powerful people on earth, are going to be released into inheritances to those who might not be quite as conservative, or be looking to forge their own path into the future, rather than on the laurels of their parents. This changes things again.
For instance,
At a Glance: Nearly 94% of cryptocurrency buyers are in the age range of 18-40, with Gen Z (18-24) and Millennials (25-40) making up the majority. Gen X (41-56) and Boomers (57+) account for only a small percentage. Interestingly, although younger buyers outnumber older ones, Gen X buyers spend the most on average.
But, be careful...
Because I assume, that it doesn't necessarily mean that 94% of wealth is in the hands of Gen Z and Millennials. And, it is likely that for those who do own the most, are likely in the late Millennial age group - like the Winklevoss twins, who together own around 70,000 Bitcoin - or 2.1 billion dollars worth today. And likely, with the launch of Bitcoin in January 2009, the majority of participants were GenX'ers, people in their mid 20s to late 30s at the time. The young tech nerds, who are now not that young.
But, what this means is that as the older generations succumb to mortality and pass over to the infinite darkness, they are going to be leaving whatever they have accumulated to their children, who are currently in various stages of struggling. And, we have a little bit of a peek into this already, as for example in 2021 Australia, the "Bank of Mum and Dad" (BOMD) held 34 billion dollars in loans to children, making them the 9th largest lender in the country. At the time of their passing, all of their wealth is going to be transferred to people who couldn't afford to buy a house without their help.
Interestingly, it is also because of their help that people were able to afford houses that they couldn't otherwise buy, propping up the market and pushing it to the moon, as demand increased in Covid and people bought on increasing debt, including on guarantees from parents, so they could borrow even more. This means that even more funds were available to banks to print even more money through loans and interest, which on top of all the Covid loans from governments, injected even more money into the supply, pushing inflation harder.
This aside...
When that "Boomer money" does find new bank accounts and the governments have taken their inheritance cuts, it is going to be in hands that are not only struggling in the current economy, but also far more explorative and tech savvy, meaning they are also likely crypto friendly. And, the older of them are also likely to start holding positions in banks and companies that can influence the direction of products, to increasingly cater to people like them.
People like us.
As I see it, there is going to likely be some kind of slow changing of the guard process, which will have wealth changing hands. But, it is going into hands that are more likely to push increasing amounts into what will rapidly become a shadow economy, with growing services and wealth flows through innovation, productization and services. Essentially, once this starts happening, the mass of wealth shifts toward a tipping point where it is not only unstoppable, but it is legitimized and accepted.
Remember, that these same groups of no longer poor crypto users, will increasingly populate governments too, and as voting masses change, legislation will shift too. This means that almost by default, crypto is going to get an enormous amount of support in the future, regardless of what happens to it now. The more the elderly try to kill it, the wider the wealth gap gets, eventually, that wealth changes hands into a different culture that has learned that the way things are, is not the way.
According to financial market intelligence firm Cerulli and Associates, baby boomers and the Silent Generation (preceding boomers) will pass down $84.4 trillion in assets through 2045, with $72.6 trillion going directly to heirs.
This is over the next twenty years and it will not only generate a massive movement of wealth, but also a massive amount of new opportunities that carter to the changing appetites of the consumer market, which of course, also drives the investment markets.
to close with, think about what you would do if you were to inherit a million dollars. If you were going to buy a new car, would it by combustion, or electric? If you were going to invest, what kinds of companies and assets? If you were going to buy a house, what kinds of products and appliances would you fit? How much would you spend on entertainment? Would you travel?
If you are reading this, the chances are you are not a boomer and you fall into the categories that would likely have more of the "easy come, easy go" nature, meaning, your hands might not be made of diamond and, you value leisure and pleasure time a lot. This is a cultural shift that will see those who are able to build the products and services that cater for the newly rich, become very wealthy indeed.
Assuming it survives, what is the price of Bitcoin in 2045?
Assuming I survive, I will be 66 years of age.
And would have been in crypto for thirty years.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]