The markets seem to be heading in the right direction at the moment, and while I suspect there are still a few hurdles to overcome, cryptos are looking pretty good for the later parts of 2024. I actually feel that there will be an ATH before that though, which will shake a lot of the looser hands and profit-takers out of the market at that level, leaving a thinner supply to move into a mountain.
I could be wrong on this, but last ATH we saw it happen, where the volume from the first ATH of the series and the volume required for second, were quite different. The second ATH required about half the volume.
And if you look down to where we are in 2023, you can see that the volume has been very low, even as the price has gone about 150% for the year so far. This indicates in my head that there are a lot of unwilling sellers who have been accumulating, waiting for a decent point to sell. But, when they do sell, it is going to be a very volatile time, which will push the price down as they clear their wallets, only to have it sucked up by holders who will want an even higher price to sell. With less sellers, that thin market can be pushed into real hype territory.
Will it see 100K?
I think so, or very close to it, because the market wants to achieve that figure as some kind of psychological proof that there is indeed a reason to pay attention to Bitcoin. It is the big numbers that bring the attention of the masses, not the daily gains. If people were paying attention, they would have been buying at 17K, not waiting for an ATH at 67K, then getting in to ride the hype to 100K. For those that are not good at math, 600% gains are better than 50% gains.
But of course, it always depends on what one holds as to whether it is going to make a significant difference or not. For instance, my friend for a few years who didn't want to buy a whole bitcoin at 4K as I had suggested, then spent half that to buy a fraction when it was at 50K. Over the last few years, he has been checking his wallet daily, as he has been down well over 50%. Had he bought the whole Bitcoin when I had said he might want to, the lowest he would have ever got was still at a 400% gain on investment.
I actually suggested he buy 2.5 Bitcoin, 30% of lumpsum he had received.
Percentage gains are meaningless if holding nothing. And, percentage gains are also meaningless if the amount held isn't enough to make a difference. The "amount" is relative to location and personal conditions of course, but when people put a chart of "their gains" with no mention of what they actually hold, it is worth considering that they might not have that much.
On HIVE, it is easy to see what a particular account holds in their wallet and do the math on their gains relative to the hold. However, the wallet doesn't indicate the "price" of that HIVE. For instance, someone might have been buying it at 4c when it was STEEM, some might have bought at a dollar, some might have earned it through content votes, some through selling their votes, some might have stolen it. But, at least on the surface level, the current value is transparent.
Every cent HIVE increases in price on the markets, adds $2,574.66 to my account value.
That is an enormous amount, but of course, that doesn't mean every cent gives me that amount for my daily usage, because it is all staked up into my account. And for me at least, I see HIVE as being heavily undervalued, meaning that I am not going to be selling HIVE for fiat any time soon. I might trade some HIVE for some other crypto products though, like Splinterlands assets from time to time, but that is because I see a return in that too, and I see it as Hive adjacent.
Fiat is how we might value it in relation to the real world, but once it is transferred into fiat, it loses value as it is entering into a world if inflation and manipulation. It isn't just the spending value, but the value as a tool itself, because once in fiat, we no longer actually have control over it.
We don't hold the keys to dollars.
However, crypto is also not fully formed, so there has to be interaction at the practical level. What I think though, is that many people are interacting with the fiat world at levels that are far too insignificant. They are using crypto as an ATM to facilitate a low-level life, and for some, it is because they aren't willing to get a low-level job to pay their daily bills, whilst they collect some crypto so that when they do use it to enter the fiat world, it makes an impact.
Impact is important.
I don't hold much Bitcoin, so when it hits that ATH, it isn't going to benefit me a huge amount, even though my friends think it might. They equate bitcoin to crypto as a whole, assuming everyone holds it. However, when that ATH comes, all other crypto (nearly) are also going to see a rise in value, which will impact on my life significantly, if this time I choose to divest some into fiat. So far, I haven't had the need and I don't plan on needing it later, but I do plan on making an impact with the investments in money and work I have put in over the last seven years.
Everyone likes to fantasize about a high HIVE price, but it is impossible to tell how far it will actually climb. What is useful to recognize though is that there are some very large holders of HIVE, who are very embedded into the belief that there is value here for the long-term. This means that while they might be taking value out, they also want to keep value in for the future. How much is going to depend on many things, and it will affect how high the price climbs, or how quickly it falls off the cliff on the other side.
There is 417M HIVE (ignoring the conversion rate of 33M HBD). This means that 5 dollar HIVE will see a capitalization of around 2.1B, which means that even selling 100K HIVE for half a million, will barely make a dent. However, how many are willing to buy up at that price?
We will find out soon enough.
What is certain though, is if HIVE hits that value on the markets, there are going to be a hell of a lot of very wealthy crypto people who have sold other tokens, and are looking for places to hold.
Are we safe enough?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
