Does anyone else feel like many streams are pulling together to a point in the not too distant future? There seems to be so much tension in the air with the insanity that is American politics, inaugurations, impeachments and a fair chance for more violence on the streets, the expansion of "mutant strains" of Covid to enforce stricter lockdowns with more complicated rules, announcements from the World Bank saying not to be overly optimistic and the purge from social platforms.
In the last couple days, the news site I have been using as a mainstream barometer and which has had no mention of Bitcoin until it hit about 35,000 dollars, has been reveling in the recent drop in value by spreading FUD. Stories about how people who bought Bitcoin will literally "lose all their money", which I have seen repeated in the UK news also. I saw one say that there is a risk that they might not be able to sell back into fiat because - there may not be the volume. Granted, volume is down by 8% in the last 24 hours, but it was still above 70 billion and I expect that with the current ongoing pump, that will increase further.
It is funny though, as while it has been pretty quiet in the mainstream lead up to the all time highs, once there was a retrace, the FUD starts flying. I see this like any kind of media drive, where they allow and even support the quiet rise of "celebrity" but once at the top, will look to cut them down to size for the sport of it, the drama of it, the manipulation of it.
But, I feel that with these various streams, there is a unifying trend that binds them together to create some kind of perfect storm scenario that could very well be the biggest opportunity for crypto adoption ever.
We can see that over the last 6 months, companies have publicly been buying Bitcoin in large volumes, but they were likely buying for months or years earlier in smaller amounts on the sly. With the cost of holding cash on hand being multiplied by the cost of governments printing money, they have to put that cash somewhere. However, most investment companies likely aren't ready or aren't allowed by law to invest into crypto with customer funds, but private companies are allowed with their own.
The share prices keep climbing because those with cash are disincentivized to keep it, but with no options for alternatives, people keep investing into the companies, even though the gap between price and the activity of the business itself keeps growing. For example, there are rules for retirement funds in Finland that severely limit their range of companies to invest into, but they have to invest into something in order to make gains for the future. In many ways, they are trapped by regulation in a similar way to most of us, maybe more so in some.
While I don't feel sorry for them as companies, they are "entrusted" to generate wealth for people, ordinary people like you and I who work jobs and have to put money into some kind of superannuation fund. If they are hamstrung by where they can invest the capital due to risk exposure, nationality of company or rating, while that offers some protection in some conditions, if it becomes too narrow, those who suffer when the bubble bursts will be ordinary people, not the investment company itself.
What this means is that there is going to be a greater drive for institutions to be be somewhat less regulated, as the corporations that are "free" to invest into risk will take the value for themselves. At some point and perhaps it has happened in some places already, retirement funds will be "allowed" to invest our money into something like Bitcoin, or at least a portion of the fund. The market cap is nothing today in comparison to if these funds put single digit investments in.
Then, with the increasing drive against big tech for shady dealings, behavior and "unfair" competition practices, there is the chance that more regulation gets placed on them, which will push them into reducing their exposure to local risk, pointing them toward crypto. Not only this, a lot of their users wills tart recognizing just how harmful these behaviors have been and they will also start looking for alternatives, which would be great for Hive.
While this is all speculation (isn't everything?), I do think that the growing tension is increasing uncertainty and people will both start to panic in some way, as their world crumbles down around them. FUD and FOMO working hand in hand to make people reevaluate their defaults and see if there is a better way to combat their stress or build their security.
People want to feel safe and the current world conditions feel anything but secure, so like rats swimming to look for something to cling to, we will look for something we can trust in. The governments are failing, the corporations are failing, the media are failing and so much of the consumer world says "trust me" yet fails to be trustworthy time and time again.
Time to go trustless.
How will the markets respond?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
