Since I got out of a freezing home to meet up with two friends for a quick bite to eat, we were able to dive into some interesting conversations, that ranged from work-related matters (as they are also colleagues), and into social and even some political areas. However, one concept I have been thinking about a lot lately was also scratched, which is what I will delve into here for a bit.
Complicated v Complex
What is the difference?
They are often used synonymously, but at least at a conceptual level, there is value in teasing them apart to see if there is anything useful in each. And, I believe the differences have implications on many parts of our life, especially our careers. However, one of my friends also brought up a good point, which I will mention later, if I remember.
Firstly, let's have a look at the difference between these in terms of a problem we are looking to solve. A complicated problem is one which is difficult to solve, but once it is solved, it is easy to replicate the solution. Whereas a complex problem is impossible to solve perfectly, because it is has factors that are always unknowns and variables. To "illustrate" this, I will use a topical example.
Have an AI create an image that looks like a real human.
This is a complicated problem, because there are a lot of nuances that it has to understand, including adding in imperfections for it to jump the uncanny valley and pass the human sniff test. However, once the problem has been solved, it is replicable very cheaply, because the algorithms required do the job. There is a huge amount of work involved in getting the AI to create the first image, but every subsequent image is very cheap. It is a production line.
Have an AI create an image that looks like a real human that every human finds attractive.
Add a couple words on the end however, and suddenly, a complicated problem becomes a complex problem, because attraction has so much variability that it is impossible to get a best fit that everyone would find attractive. For instance, a simple question to demonstrate this would be, what skin color will this image of a person have?
Simple > Complicated > Complex > Chaos
Now, what is interesting for me is looking at this from various perspectives that impact on our lives, for instance, the kind of work we do. As we work in IT, we were looking at this from the difference between a coder, and a salesperson. There is a lot of complication in coding, but essentially, there is a process to working through that complication toward a solution, and once that solution is discovered, the process starts again on the next task. However, this is also largely replicable, which is why AIs are getting better at coding, as they are able to follow the process and reach the solutions in the same way.
However, selling is complex, not because it is harder, but because it has a lot of unknown factors, as well as a lot of changing variables, that are rarely static. The "way to sell" is constantly evolving, because people are constantly changing their tastes and preferences. It is similar to the "attractive image" example above, where what is desirable even on average, shifts over time.
Simple > Complicated > Complex > Chaos
Using these four terms to look at problem solving as a task list,
So, what kinds of problems do you work with?
This is interesting to me, because I see that the future employment roles that are the safest, are the ones that are not complicated to do, they are complex to do, because they either can't, or it is too hard to codify it. For instance, the job of a plumber might be "simple" in terms of what gets done, but it is complex in the way it gets done, because there is so much variation in aspects of the job. It would be very, very difficult to create a robot plumber that can get into all the spaces that a plumber must. It isn't impossible, but it also isn't likely worth the effort just yet. But, a complicated process like a lot of admin work can be, is codifiable, which means that a system could be taught to do the filing, security, workflows and automation of documentation.
This is important for me to consider as a parent, because if I want my daughter to be employable into the future, she has to learn how to deal with complexity, not complication. Most of school learning is around complication, with the complexity being through the interactions with other humans, not the work itself.
Which leads into what my friend mentioned:
Complicated is boring
"It's complicated" is not something attractive, it is something with a lot of steps on the task list to sort out, but once sorted, there is no more mystery. Whereas a complex relationship is something where there are a lot of unknowns and it is constantly in flux, constantly shifting and evolving, impossible to fully pin down.
Looming at it from a task list perspective, complicated jobs aren't necessarily hard, they are just more of a grind, because there is very little "art" in the process, it is just putting one foot in front of the other. There is nothing left to solve.
And, I think that this is where a lot of people are going wrong when they choose convenience, because convenience is generated through the simplification of complication, so we don't have to deal with uncertainty.
For instance, today for the first time ever, I picked up pre-ordered groceries from the store, because my wife wanted to try it. It was very convenient, but while there is certainty in the order, there is also no chance for random to happen. No chance to get a spark of inspiration about what to have for dinner. Nor is there the chance to run into a stranger or friend and strike up an unexpected conversation.
Yet, we are doing this with all of our lives, by getting algorithms to curate our experience through the choices we make and the suggestions "they" make for us, based on our choices. We are taking out variables to create a more secure experience for ourselves, because uncertainty is uncomfortable, and that is bad in the eyes of human.
But, this need for certainty is also why we evolve and innovate, because necessity is the mother of invention and when we meet random, we look to solve it so we understand, pull apart, and simplify so that we no longer fear it. The need for certainty is our superpower as humans, as uncertainty is the inspiration for us to create. Take uncertainty out of our environment, and we might feel safe, but we also atrophy creatively.
And this is what we are doing.
And, this is also why I think that younger people who have spent a great deal of time in engineered "safe spaces" are not creative, because they have no need to solve for anything. Everything is conveniently placed in front of their eyes, and whenever anything arises that is uncomfortable, they feel threatened and look to remove it from their view.
Cancel it.
Having said that complicated is boring, most of us are boring, because we don't want to deal with uncertainty and ambiguity. We are looking for stability, a sure thing. We aren't risk takers, so we look to codify our experience as much as possible, so that we don't have to take risks. This also means that we aren't the creatives who change the world.
Not architects of our own design, but laborers on another's site.
For me, the implications of this discussion are far-reaching, because I see myself as someone who enjoys dealing a lot in complexity, but dislike complication. This isn't to say that there is no value in complication, because there is a huge amount. For instance, an architect can design the most beautiful building, full of sweeping curves and complexity, but to close the gap to reality, the engineers have to reduce the complexity into pieces of complication, and make it happen. For instance, by developing new materials and construction methods. But, if there are no architects, they will just make do copying what they have done before, which is why there are far more cookie-cutter buildings, than bespoke ones.
It is cheaper. Profits are higher.
Now, do you see why I am against convenience? It is because it secures a status quo for the corporations who sell it, by turning us into users with a safe, secure, reliable experience, that doesn't bring in the random to support us to be creative. It is a homogenization of our minds, making us simple, by trapping us under complication, so we never have to face the complexity.
And to finish with. The universe is chaotic, it is full of random. However, we are able to slowly expand our awareness of it by pulling out some of the patterns through our experience, which is complex. Then, we are able to play with that complexity, uncomfortably learning in uncertainty, until we can understand it enough so that it is largely complicated. From there, we break that down, and simplify it until we have a repeatable solution, that becomes commonplace.
We can communicate across immense distances, fly through the air, go to space.
Once upon a time, only the chaos of imagined gods could come close to what we now take for granted daily. All of what was chaos, filtered into complexity, and now, is just a set of tasks an AI can manage.
Simple.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
