Back in early 2017 - I held about three Bitcoin that I had been trading backward and forward for over the space of a couple months. Back then, it equated to less than three thousand dollars and I do not hold near that much in BTC now - I traded most of it for Steem and a bag of random alts I still hold.
After the halving so far, the resulting highs have taken over a year to reach, but they have been significantly higher, 10 - 1000, 800 - 20,000 and the latest, 9000 - ?????? - who knows, it could crash to zero also. When it comes to history being a good predictor of the future, Bitcoin might be the granddaddy of crypto, but it was a very, very, very young father. Not even a teen.
But looking at the chart of price with the halvings indicated, shows that the next high after the third halving that happened yesterday could be considerably higher than the current price. What price would that be is anyone's guess, as it is going to have to be driven by a lot more participation from external sources, likely institutional money coming in, not tech geeks from their mother's basement.
Mainstreaming Bitcoin would likely eventuate on a far greater splash of light on the alt markets also and if people remember from the last bullrun, even Ethereum was getting attention on mainstream media. Let's say the price of Bitcoin was going to make a similar move that it did in the last shift, that would put it at around 200,000 dollars - which means that there would be quite a few more technical millionaires in the world, not me however - as I don't hold anywhere near enough.
However, if this did happen to Bitcoin, what would the run look like for alts?
From that BTC run from 800 - 20,000 (25x) for example, Steem went from 7 cents to 8 dollars(114x) - It did drop back to almost that point again at the ass-end of the bear also, but it is interesting to think that at around that time, most alts saw gains, some saw astronomical gains. If, the next run is 10x greater than the last, I would suspect that some of the alts are going to go insane, with the challenge being which of them will be able to take attention.
HIVE?
I hope so. Especially as it is one of the few that encourages participation in a community and ownership and freedoms in areas that are continually being removed in other digital realms of society. It also has the strongest community in crypto as well as a pool of funds for development that could produce applications that capture the attention and admiration of the new crypto enthusiasts, all those who are not yet in the space at all.
There is a great amount of potential in price movement on Hive and if the blockchain and community prepares itself well, it should also be able to retain a good deal of that value when the bear markets return, by having applications that are not reliant on the value of the pool alone, but are supported economically by their user base in the same way other businesses operate.
However, much like the bullrun in 2017, people will chop and change between projects hoping to maximize their profits and feel that they "missed out" if they didn't make the right moves, only getting 10x instead of 20x, or 50x instead of 100x - people will always see the loss. Even when Steem hit its high, those who had bought at the previous low and held all the way down to the last low, would have still been up around 50% in the space of two years - not bad.
I think that in the next run, there will be gains to be made all over the place and as long as the projects chosen survive into the future, the gains could be very, very good for some. A community project like Hive that offers a diverse range of investment options and usage experiences has a very good chance of being a bucket that captures a lot of the market. In particular, it offers the potential for an individual to experience the full range of the diversity with a single account - which with a little bit of clever design, simplifies and adds convenience into usage.
The future of rewarding blockchains is Hive-like at the very least, infrastructure that can house a wide variety of applications, a marketplace, games and multiple ways to direct attention and therefore, the flow of value. When that value is flowing throughout applications all sitting on the one platform, the movement itself generates more value by encouraging more participation from developers and therefore, the potential for new users to be attracted also. Plus, the ability of the blockchain to make the middleman obsolete frees up a lot of resources for a much more direct path between contributor and consumer - an important step in freedom of information.
While the price of alts are coupled to the fate of Bitcoin for the foreseeable future, there are benefits in this as it will mean that when the light of attention shines on BTC, it will soon spill heavily onto the alts, with those that can offer something more than speculation likely to retain some traction post-run.
I do think that Hive is one of the blockchains that is going to make inroads into the enduser markets and with the right foundations, retain them long-term, all the way up to the next bullrun, where the mass will grow again and will start o have its own gravity - working a little more independently and slowly decoupling from Bitcoin to at least some degree. The decoupling might be at the core token layer, but it is more likely going to be at the application level through SMTs, where regardless of the price of other tokens, people will keep supporting the applications they enjoy - much like a recession doesn't stop people using Instagram or Facebook.
But, it is a complex and highly volatile infant industry and anything can happen, which is why there is risk and value associated with it. "Guess right" and put your money down and be comfortable for life, put your money in the wrong place at the wrong time, and it becomes a swing and a miss. Currently, there are many people who aren't even willing to pick up the bat.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
