5x Gains

I'm on track for a 5x in a month.

Getting a 500% gain in a month would be considered some pretty incredible returns on an investment, but when it is a cost, the celebration isn't quite so enthusiastic. Currently, based on the first five days since our contract has changed over from a fixed rate made two years ago to "market rate" now, we are looking at a 5x increase in our electricity costs, which is a significant hit to our monthly budget.

The electricity company is getting the 5x gain

Talking with friends recently, they were looking to save more money on their shopping to cover the many rising costs, by planning their meals better. As many have done over the last years especially, there has been more takeout and that has also led to less planning ahead, instead shopping "when needed", which means going in hungry and buying more unnecessary items.

Planning ahead helps, we all know it, but at the same time, most of us struggle to actually do it. I know I do. If there is one thing I consistently fail at, it is my ability to effectively plan and stick to the plan I have created. This doesn't mean blindly stick to it, because things can change that affect the initial plan, but often, I don't even get far past the start line, before something gets in my way and scuttles the ship.

Normally me.

It has been the same with many things, where for example I had a plan to sell something in the "next bull market" that is now the last bull market and I still held. Why? There are a number of reasons, but one of them is an unwillingness to pull that trigger and shoot, because there is the fear of missing the top or, the fear of success too.

I fear success more than failure.

Failure is a "grin and bear" situation and can be suffered in silence, but success often comes with a spotlight of some kind. The bear market is one where most can withdraw, wait it out, get comfortable in the shadows and the mud. Bull markets are fast-moving, quick decisions and lots of second, third and fourth guesses, where wins might be large, before the next even higher high says, wrong move buddy.

Expectations.

We all have them and they impact on the way we experience our lives, and that includes the way we behave. No matter if using chart or gut, trading is all about expectations and it is easy to get caught up in both the hype and the FUD, as well as personal desires blended into the mix, where we all want some return on our activity, whatever that might be.

Planning is easy. Execution is hard.

I am learning to get better with this, but combined with my penchant for procrastination, it seems to be a slow process with a lot of steps back, and inches gained from time to time forward. But, even though I might not be great at pulling that trigger at the top, luckily I am also equally terrible to pulling it at the bottom.

As everyone is currently talking about the cost of electricity around here, I was asked today what I planned to do considering it is such a large jump for us. Well, while it is a very large jump, it essentially means that for the next few months, we will be avoiding most unnecessary costs to cover the immediate needs and not putting away extra, as we had planned after putting a hiatus on renovation activities since the kitchen has been completed. It isn't going to be a fun time, but it is currently survivable, under current circumstances.

See the expectation?

Circumstances can and do change quickly, so predicting the future under the "all things remaining equal" scenario is always going to be somewhat out of alignment with reality, because like it or not, things change - plans change. Committing to a plan doesn't mean sticking to it no matter what, because the plan is the journey part that leads to the outcome and, the course may need to change in order to get that same outcome. And, the desired outcome can change too.

One of my friends recently had a baby with a congenital issue that is very rare and can be extremely debilitating and cause a raft of large problems in development, both physically and mentally. They don't know yet what this means for their child, but it isn't something that they were expecting to deal with.
When they were telling me about it, it reminded me of my own experience with our daughter, who didn't have nearly those kinds of lasting issues, but the ones she did have caused an immediate impact on our lives outside of what we were expecting. We had planned well for our expectations.

Plans change.

But, under the burden of necessity, the mother of invention kicked into gear and forced us into replanning and executing our plans in order to survive. It wasn't easy, nor was it pleasant, but it was rewarding in the sense that the actions and sacrifices we were making amounted to something greater than the cost, something that had a far deeper meaning to us and, something that affected our future heavily. And perhaps this is what needs to be remembered in these kinds of times.

Nothing lasts forever.

Everything is transitory, so we should understand that no matter what we expect, the chances of not getting what we wanted is guaranteed to be on the spectrum. Also, that means that when we get what we "don't want" there is probably also some aspects that are on the spectrum too, with good coming out of the darkness. Being able to plan ahead is a luxury in many respects, but it is one that all can do within their means and opportunity, but there is absolutely no guarantee whether the planning is going to make any difference to the outcomes. Playing the averages though, it is more likely to get closer, than not having a plan at all.

I might be paying 5x more for electricity for the next few months, but I expect a 10x gain on the crypto I hold. But there is no guarantee.