Published via Ecency

There is a new tool that has started making noise worldwide. It is called Truflation. And it promises to give us the “real” picture of inflation. Not just faster, but with much greater accuracy.

CPI VS TRUFLATION

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the official indicator used by the US government to measure inflation. It is released once a month and is based on roughly 80,000 data points from household surveys and consumer goods prices. It is essentially a mirror of what happened during the previous month.

But…

Truflation comes to change all that. It is an alternative inflation index based on more than 15 million data points, updated DAILY. These data come from real market prices, transactions in e-shops and physical stores, and even credit card data. All of this is published using blockchain technology, ensuring full transparency and immediacy.

So what do we have?

On one side, CPI tells us once a month what happened.

On the other, Truflation tells us in real time what is happening NOW.

Which of the two would you trust to make investment decisions?

And if you are wondering… while the official CPI shows inflation at 2.7%, Truflation shows just 1.21%.

This means that, according to its data, inflation has already fallen much more than the Fed is willing to acknowledge. And this is where things start to get interesting. Because if this is true, then the policies being applied today may be excessive. Perhaps they have been slow to adapt to reality.

Because Truflation, beyond accuracy, also acts as a leading indicator. According to analyses, it predicts CPI readings with a 45-day lead. In other words, today we are seeing what CPI will show in about a month and a half.

So if Truflation is right, then the Fed is relying on outdated data. And if inflation is indeed that low, then it should have already started cutting interest rates. Not just keeping them steady, but cutting them aggressively, possibly by 100 basis points during 2026.

And what would that mean for the market? Who would benefit from such developments?

(a) Banks, because demand for loans and credit would increase
(b) Real estate, because borrowing costs would fall and the housing market would heat up again
(c) Small companies, which are usually hit hardest by high interest rates, would gain breathing room and liquidity
(d) And of course, the broader stock market

In other words, if the Fed wakes up, the market could explode. Upwards.

GDP

At the same time, last week we had the GDP revision for Q3 2025. And instead of +4.3%, it came in at +4.4%. And before you say so what?

Consumption, which accounts for 70% of US GDP, increased by 3.5%, up from 2.5% in the previous quarter. This means that despite high interest rates, consumers continue to spend. They have simply adapted. Instead of expensive brands, they shop at Costco, Walmart, and TJ Maxx. In other words, they spend more intelligently.

In addition, business investment and exports were also revised upward. All of this points to an economy that is not only resilient, but growing. And the Fed? Still insists that inflation remains a risk.

So what will the Fed actually do? This is where the whole game is. If it is confirmed that real inflation is already lower, then the Fed will be forced to change its stance. And this could bring: