The traditional view is that electric cars will for many years be a specialized product and their market is limited because of their high prices and their high reliance on government support, but an increasing number of analysts now argue that this pessimistic view is out of date.
The price of electric cars is falling much faster than expected, driven by cheaper batteries and government policies in China and Europe that encourage vehicles that do not emit environmentally harmful emissions, according to a new report from Bloomberg Energy Finance, a research group.
The report predicted that between 2025 and 2030, the price of electric cars will compete with traditional fuel-powered, even without government subsidies and even before taking into account the provision of fuel consumption. Once this happens, it will be followed quickly by the mass adoption of electric vehicles.
If this prediction fails, it will have serious consequences for the auto industry and the oil markets as well as the world's efforts to slow global warming.
According to Bloomberg's forecasts, hybrid electric cars and electric cars will account for 54 percent of global light car sales by 2040, outperforming conventional car sales.
The main reason for this is the batteries. Since 2010, the average cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen by more than a third, to about $ 300 per kWh.
The Bloomberg report said the cost would drop to $ 73 by 2030 without any major technical breakthrough. Companies such as Tesla, the maker of electric cars, would increase battery production in large plants, adjust battery design and improve their chemistry.
Over the next decade, electric vehicles will continue to rely on government incentives and sales trusts in places like China, Europe and California, the report says. But with manufacturers offering more versatile and cheaper models, electric cars will reach a point where they can stand on their own.
