Hello SPIers, today we look at BTC and if it's heading into a correction. It's not going to be a long post, I dont think people like to read 1000-word posts anymore and want bullet points without the information.
Jumping right in, the stock-to-flow BTC chart is back in action. Its sort of back in action, I believe the pattern is correct but the BTC $ values are wrong. Im a believer in the cycles repeating so this chart is very interesting for me to check out every few weeks. I ignore the main red line a little. But i beleive the process. Take 6 steps forward over 2 years, take 3 steps back over a year and go sideways for a year, rinse and repeat.
Markets trend upwards always over long periods of time. You bought shares, gold, property, oil, whatever 50 years ago, it'll be worth more today 100%. (spending power? thats another question, lol)
FYI, i dont believe BTC cycles will have any impact on the overall crypto market as an investment class in 20-30 years if the asset class is to be worth hundreds of trillions of dollars. BTC will most likely get dethroned from the top spot and be replaced with something else, maybe ETH. You can safely earn a yield from mining and it's deflationary so it has pumpamentals. Probally some super new token that has not been thought of yet.
Point is, this chart is still relevant today but I think it'll become less relevant and more off projections as each cycle passes. But today, its still useful. I said lets jump in and then waffle for 200 words. Lets jump in...
The dotted verticle lines are when the BC halving takes place. You can see i have highlighted the pumps form the excitement of the coming halving and then the correction that comes after when BTC can dump between 20-50%,
During the first 2 halving's, BTC pumped and was declining at the halving event, last cycle it pumped, dumped a little but was increasing again by the halving. This cycle, what do you think? BTC has pumped hard the past 2 weeks. If we repeat the last cycle, BTC could dump to $50-55k for a week are so and then start to smash new time highs, proper new time highs like confirmed clear over $70k.
This cycle we have BTC ETFs and I understand the massive buy orders are very bullish but if BTC's ETF's are to become like Gold ETFs, these buy orders will dry up as funds get regulation to do Fractional-reserve EFTs where they only need to hold 0-1 BTC to be able to sell 100 BTC ETF's. When you buy 1oz of Gold as an ETF, do you think there a vault somewhere that has your name on 1 oz of gold?
Most BTC ETFs dont even trade at the same price as BTC, Blackrock's BTC ETF is currently $35, Fidelity's BTC ETF is $28 and the list goes on 🚩. It's very bullish today but in the future, we dont know. Within gold and silver stacking, each metal has 2 prices. The paper price is known as the spot price and then there is the physical price for actual metal. Silver spot is $24 today but you have not a hope of buying bullion for close to that price.
We could have the same for BTC and have a paper price, the price you see on coingecko and the physical price which will carry a premium over the spot for being real BTC. This already happens with BTC as some people will pay miners a premium over the spot BTC price to get newly minted BTC. (something to do with clean history, some black market gangsta stuff) Not moving your BTC could add a premium in the future if people desire BTC linked to as few other wallets as possible. Sorta like the new BTC is worth more than 2nd, 3rd and 1000th hand BTC.
The ETF is very bullish right now but like with gold, why would Blackrock want to earn 0.5% from a management fee on a 100% backed ETF when they can just not back it and keep all the invested money plus get a 0.5% fee? Blackrock is not managing $10 trillion because they do things ethically and play by the rules, they make their own rules.
Again, not saying ETFs are bad but from my POV, this is just another gamecharger moment for BTC and BTC will stick to its cycle patterns. Many are saying, that this will be a supercycle that will last 2-3 years. The same people that said BTC would hit $400k last cycle. Over bullish. I guess this cycle BTC top with come between April and July 2025 and then ALT's September-Nov some year. What price will BTC be, between $10k and $500k, no idea.
It'll follow BTC, just a few weeks after. I would not be surprised to see 30-cent HIVE again over the coming months. Maybe we should create an HIVE ETF and get HIVE to back over $3 again. haha. We could do a proposal for the HIVE DHF, they seem to just give money away and you dont even have to complete the work either, you only need to start it and keep saying soon, soon.
HIVE price movements are always very late after BTC because it's a low marketcap token so it takes longer for fresh money to filter down in the simplest terms. We saw this play out over the past month when HIVE bounced between 30-34 cents for 3 weeks while BTC mooned from $50k to $60k over a few days and went sideways for a week. Only last week did HIVE wake up and pump 20%. We can almost use BTC as a glass ball to guess what HIVE will do are pretty much 90% of ALT tokens for that matter. We all know when BTC pumps, everything else pumps so it's not something you dont already know.
SPI is holding a few other bags as well as BTC. We have some ETH, DOGE, ADA, THOR and recently added FET. Ohh and PEPE!!, we cant forget PEPE. Looks have a look and see. So we invested only $130 ito this as a punt and todays it worth...
Thank you for checking today's post. I'd like to hear your feedback about what you think BTC next move is and how you think this cycle will play out.
FYI, ended up writing a 1000-word post. I guess it's just built in and im built to write around 1000 words whether I plan to are not.
| Token Name | Main Account | Link to hive-engine |
|---|---|---|
| SPI token |  @spinvest | SPI |
| LBI token |  @lbi-token | LBI |
| Top XV token | @spinvest | XV |
| Eddie Earners |  @eddie-earner | EDS |
| EDS miners | @eddie-earner | EDSM |
| EDS mini miners | @eddie-earner | EDSMM |
| DAB |  @dailydab | DAB |
| DBOND | @dailydab | DBOND |
