Hi Everyone,
Over the last two to three years, I have contributed significantly less to my regular economics and social economics content. My time has been spent on my fictional book series Sapien Loop. Even though the Sapien Loop series is fiction, the stories are based on another planet; much of my economics knowledge has been applied to building the world, the key storylines, and the main characters.
The books, four in total, are available on Amazon as ebooks as well as paperbacks and hardcover books. All the chapters of the books are available in my 
On completion of the fourth book, I have decided to return to my economics content. So much has happened over those few years. Unfortunately, almost all of it has been bad. Societies, Western in particular, continue to decline. Despite this decline, it appears people are still able to survive. Debt is a powerful tool that can delay the onset of hardship for a long time. However, once interest payments become insurmountable, people’s lives could be thrown into crisis very quickly. The exact point this will happen is difficult to predict. Figure 1 contains the rising average household from 2015 to 2025.
Source: Clearscore
Below is a list of topics I intend to cover over the next few months. Some of these will change as events in the world evolve or as my priorities change. I may include several interrelated topics in the same post if that provides greater understanding.
The Iran war is most likely the most consequential event of 2026. It affects every country in the world. This is mostly because of the disruption caused by the partial closure and sometimes the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In my January post The Left Right Left Right March Intensifies, I discuss, in several paragraphs, the possibility of the US attacking Iran and some of the consequences. It appears much of what I discussed came true.
There was an ‘attempt’ at regime change. The Ayatollah was killed. This did not lead to regime change, as the Ayatollah was replaced by his son, who is arguably more of an Islamic hardliner than his father was.
Iran has control over the Strait of Hormuz and can close it whenever it wants. Closing the strait was an obvious course of action, as the impact of its closure on the global economy is potentially immense. Most of the impact has not been felt yet, as the use of oil reserves has shielded economies from immediate shortages. These supplies will not last forever. They are dropping to almost record lows (Fortune).
The impact on fertiliser supply might be even more catastrophic than that of oil. Prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a 30% decline in global fertiliser supply (Kline Group). This could be catastrophic to the global food supply, with African nations suffering the most. The impact of these shortages is not likely to be felt until early 2027 once food supplies have been used up in the winter. Even if shipping returns to normal now, the impact will still be felt. A massive humanitarian disaster looms.
Iran attacked almost all US bases across the Gulf States. This was another obvious response by Iran. They even stated they would respond in this manner. The extent of the damage caused to these bases has not been reported in the media. It is quite likely it is extensive.
Donald Trump’s reasons for attacking Iran have been inconsistent. The reason most consistent with actions taken is to force Iran to change leadership and significantly change their regime. The desired outcome would be to insert a puppet leader who would let the US Government and the largest oil companies control Iran’s resources.
The US Establishment would have known this outcome was highly unlikely, but that would not matter, as there are other more significant objects that this war has put them on the path to obtaining. These objectives include:
These objectives might seem hard to believe. I will elaborate on all of the above in a post dedicated to the war.
Western countries are heading towards disaster. The decline accelerated from the beginning of the Covid-19 fiasco. The decline has been hastened by the policies relating to the Ukraine war, immigration, policing, public expenditure, freedom of expression, and many others. The fallout from the war in Iran is just the next stage in this accelerated decline.
How will this end up? Will it be a former Soviet Union type of economic and social collapse? Will it be a Lebanon-type civil war, a religious and cultural replacement collapse that has led to perennial instability? Will it be an Iranian type of violent uprising and radical conservative shift?
British politics has been marred by what appears to be gross incompetence. I would strongly argue that the British political system serves its core functions very well. It has managed to manoeuvre itself around some difficult circumstances. The most impressive manoeuvring involved negating almost every aspect of Brexit. Another impressive feat was shifting the ‘right’ of politics from the Conservative Party to the Reform UK Party, which is still posing, to a certain extent, as the controlled opposition.
Many of the individual politicians are not particularly competent, but they are playing their current role well. The UK Establishment are attempting to radically change the UK. The changes they desire (e.g., dismantle the economy and restructure culture) are in vast contradiction to what the citizens of the UK want. The people of the UK have become aware that the Government are not serving their interests.
The UK Government has skilfully managed to appear grossly incompetent rather than appearing as if they are acting directly against the people. This approach has been used to give the people some hope that if the leadership is changed, things will improve. This is one of the reasons for frequent changes to leadership (i.e., the face of the leadership). This is also another reason Reform UK has replaced the Conservative Party as the preferred opposition; they have yet to fail the people. This will direct anger away from the Government and keep it focused between the various demographics.
Image created with Grok 4.0
One of the most prominent propaganda circulating in Western media is that the West operates on a two-tier system. The claim is that minority groups are treated better than the European natives are. For example, they are often perceived to be favoured by policy (i.e. DEI), favoured in policing (i.e. treated less aggressively), favoured by courts (i.e. given lighter sentences), favoured in receipt of benefits (i.e. elevated on housing waiting lists), and favoured in receiving access to medical treatment (i.e. they are allowed to skip queues in hospitals because they need an interpreter).
To claim a two-tier system completely oversimplifies what is actually happening. We live in a multi-tiered society, which is predominantly divided by class. This is, at minimum, a three-tier system. Tier one are the elites. Tier two are the elites’ gofers and celebrities. Tier three are the rest of us. The additional divide based on skin colour is designed to divide people by race, religion, culture, and politics. This is easy to do considering how incompatible the cultures of most of the migrants are with the native Europeans. This is to create civil unrest between the two groups. In some countries, the ethnic Europeans will reverse the favouritism in their favour.
The justice systems in most countries are deeply flawed. A good justice system should provide justice to the victims, opportunities for rehabilitation for the culprits, and protection to society in general. In many cases, none of this is achieved. Often there is no reasonable justice for the victims. There is minimal compensation for their suffering; only 3% of victims of violent crime receive some form of compensation in the UK (UK Parliament). More than half of culprits released from prison reoffend within two years (Social Exclusion Unit). Violent crime in countries such as the UK has continued to increase (Vision of Humanity).
The system is deeply flawed. It is flawed from the investigative process to the process of prosecution to the treatment of both victims and culprits. Does the question and statement hold true for your justice system?
Does it matter if they are guilty? All that matters is that you can convince the jury they are!
Europe has been experiencing mass migration for decades. The percentage of native populations is falling rapidly. This decline is accelerated by higher immigrant birth rates and will be accelerated further when native populations feel forced to emigrate and if war breaks out in Europe.
As the standard of living falls and the taxes increase in European countries, people who can emigrate will leave these European countries and will live elsewhere. These are the wealthier people. Their absence will hasten the decline of the countries even faster. The UK is losing millionaires in record numbers (The Independent).
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues. European/NATO leaders insist on continuing the war and flooding Ukraine with as many weapons as they can. Ukrainians keep fighting, but they do not have an unlimited number of people to throw into this war. At some point, the European countries are likely to become involved directly. Several articles suggest that European countries are preparing for war with Russia by 2030 (Pravada). War could break out even sooner if Russian leadership no longer tolerates attacks deep into Russian territory. Russia will also not want to accept a future war based purely on NATO’s terms and timeframes.
If or when war in Europe breaks out, the loss of life could be enormous. A war between NATO and Russia is not likely to be short. The Russians are not going to give up easily; they have proved that in other major wars such as the Great Patriotic War (Eastern Front of World War Two). The vast majority of the people dying in this war will be native European men. The huge influx of men from North Africa and South Asia will replace these men. Within a few decades, the demographics of Europe will be completely different.
Why would Western Establishments desire such radical changes? The short answer is power. Elites would prefer a population that can be more easily controlled. An ideology such as Islam can give them that control without the inconveniences of the Western democratic systems. The Gulf States have demonstrated how successful this can be for leaders. I will discuss further in another post.
It appears that racism is climbing in European countries. This is an expected consequence of mass migration from nations with incompatible cultures as well as the Governments’ and media’s efforts to turn people against each other based on skin colour (discussed earlier in the post).
Racism has become a major taboo in most Western countries. This has a lot to do with historical racism and the treatment of people in certain European colonies (i.e., abysmal treatment of native Australians). The US has a dark history towards African slaves. Immigrants from countries outside the West did not suffer such guilt of racism. Many even see themselves as victims of historic racism. Many may also see themselves as victims of Western foreign policy.
Humans have a natural tendency to trust people who look like themselves. That is why it is not difficult to divide people based on skin colour. Immigrants who have not been conditioned to detest racist behaviour are more inclined to behave in a racist manner. It could range from minor things such as exclusionary behaviour to more major things such as direct attacks on other races.
Aggressive racist behaviour from one side will eventually be met with racism from the other side. Despite the taboo of racism, the native Europeans will reach a breaking point where they will respond to immigrants negatively. The actions of the Government and media are fuelling such retaliatory behaviour.
Image created with Grok 4.0
Taxes keep increasing, yet at the same time the quality of public services and infrastructure is sharply declining (Institute for Government). There are several possible reasons that this has occurred.
I will examine the above possibilities and more in a detailed post.
Sanctions are not new or symptomatic of current circumstances. However, they have taken a devastating toll on many of the smaller or poorer countries that they are used against. According to World Affairs in Context citing a Lancet Study, approximately 38 million people have been killed directly or indirectly because of sanctions imposed by the US and the EU.
The US and EU will claim various reasons for these sanctions, such as weakening the leadership or their ability to hurt Western interests. Sanctions have a poor success rate at causing leadership or regime change. However, they are very successful at causing pain and suffering to the people of these countries. The people Western leaders hypocritically claim to be helping.
Sanctions are also a key driver of mass migration and one of the key reasons immigrants are currently flooding Europe (CEPR). This aligns with key objectives outlined earlier in the post.
I will discuss sanctions in greater detail in an individual post.
The Covid-19 fiasco was one of the darkest periods in our history since World War Two. I have written about the events during that period in many of my posts. You can read more about it in my post Summary of Spectrumecons Covid-19 Series and another post, Covid-19 Crimes and Vaccine Fraud, which I reflect on the damage that had been caused by the response to Covid-19.
One of the few bright sparks from that time was that it appeared people were finally waking up to the tyranny of our leaders and the elite. I was afraid it might be too little too late. I was a little too optimistic. The Ukraine war started, and most people fell in line with the propaganda almost as if they had forgotten all the lies during the Covid-19 fiasco. This was a strong indication that most people could still be easily manipulated.
The Establishment responded by intensifying their use of controlled opposition. Donald Trump returned as the ‘anti-Establishment’ president in the US. ‘Anti-Establishment’ parties are continuing to gain popularity in Europe. The purpose of these parties is to control any dissent that poses any genuine threats to the Establishment's agendas by drawing people back into the system. Almost all these anti-establishment candidates are claiming to be ‘right-wing’, which they want people to believe is anti-Establishment. Both ‘left-wing’ and ‘right-wing’ ideologies are central to Establishment and its centuries-old strategy of divide and conquer of the population. In my recent post The Left Right Left Right March Intensifies I cover the use of controlled opposition in some detail, but there is still much to discuss.
The media focus considerably on freedom of speech. Both the ‘left-wing’ and the ‘right-wing’ media criticise and accuse each other of restricting free speech that opposes their political view. They are both correct to a certain extent. ‘Left-wing’ media and ‘activists’ appear to more openly restrict free speech using accusations such as offensive content, hate speech, and misinformation. Many ‘Right-wing activists’ claim X is some form of bastion of free speech. However, it heavily uses algorithms to promote certain content and hide other content.
Each side is trying to convince their ‘followers’ that the other side is trying to take away their free speech, which is often hailed as a democratic right. At the same time, convince their own base that disagreeable speech is a dangerous threat.
Mainstream ‘Right-wing’ and ‘Left-wing’ views are weakly censored. Each side are able to express them in a biased fashion through their own mainstream outlets and platforms. The speech that is most censored is the speech that aligns with neither side. It is typically critical of both ‘left-wing’ and ‘right-wing’ positions or raises issues ‘left-wing’ or ‘right-wing’ refuse to discuss or even acknowledge.
Freedom of speech is just one aspect of a free society. Freedom of speech falls under freedom of expression. Freedom of expression extends beyond speech. It also includes actions. It includes all forms of expressions, which includes music, art, protest, flag-waving, etc. Other aspects of freedom include freedom of movement; freedom of association; freedom of thought, conscience, and religion; and the right to privacy. Many of these freedoms are rarely discussed but are as important to maintaining freedom as speech.
In reality, all forms of freedom are under attack in one way or another. I will discuss this detail in an upcoming post.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has rapidly evolved over the past couple of years. Like most significant advancements in technology, AI has the potential to be incredibly helpful and incredibly destructive. It depends on how it is being used. See my posts, Technology – Curse or Blessing?, Less jobs vs less working hours – Further discussion about efficiency and technology, and Technology and Employment.
AI poses a threat to jobs as it can conduct tasks in a fraction of the time a person would take to do them. AI could make human capital incredibly efficient. People will be able to complete complex tasks in minutes, which have previously taken hours or even days. What is less clear is if people who are employees will be able to fairly capture the additional revenue generated from the improved efficiency. I believe this will be difficult in current working environments. It may provide smaller businesses with opportunities to thrive if they are able to beat any future regulation that might be imposed on its usage.
Possibly the biggest threat AI poses is its ability to distort reality. It already has the ability to imitate real human behaviour to a high degree of accuracy, which could fool most people. It could soon reach a level that it is almost impossible to detect. Photographs, videos, and audio will be faked and people will struggle to know what is real and what is fake. The Government will almost inevitably respond with some form of regulation, which will ultimately restrict freedom while doing little to stop the Establishment using AI to spread false information.
How did the world get to where it is today? Throughout history, there have always been people who have craved power. Some of them have been successful and others have failed. In some cases, that power has been frail, and in other cases, it has remained strong. Even the strongest grips on power eventually weaken and fail. People of the most successful societies have craved freedom. This makes it difficult for the elite to hold power directly.
The elite did not just give up on maintaining power. They adapted to hold power in different ways. The approach they choose was to hold power from behind the scenes. They let the people choose the puppet that ‘represents’ them. This was to create the illusion of freedom while the elite maintained most of the power behind the scenes. To successfully create and maintain this illusion is not easy. Hence, the reason the Establishment was formed.
The various Establishments across the West have been so successful that they have enabled the elites to expand their power far beyond their borders. They have used ‘democracy’ as their greatest weapon. Things are changing. National Establishments have merged into international Establishment/s. They have grown through multinational companies and international bodies. Countries have become less relevant as power no longer needs to be confined to borders. I will elaborate in an upcoming post.
Most of the topics described in this post are interrelated and are leading us in the same dark direction. It is important to understand them so that we can best manage the implications of them. Times will be difficult, but if we are able to anticipate the problems that await us, we can at least try to prepare.
These are quite a few topics to get started on. I will most likely add a few more along the way as different topics become more relevant depending on the ongoing events in the world.
I have written a trilogy of books titled Sapien Loop. The first in the series is Sapien Loop: End of an Era, the second is Sapien Loop: Frozen in Time, and the third is Sapien Loop: Worlds Collide. I published the whole series as ebooks on Amazon, and I have posted completed chapters to my
In 2025, I wrote a short stories book about some of the characters and their adventures. This book is now available on Amazon. I have also posted these stories to my
This story is based on the fictional planet Sapia and its sole country, Sapey. Sapey is portrayed as a form of utopia for all its citizens. No poverty. No war. Almost no crime. Opportunities for all.
This was enough for most citizens, but not all. In one of the small regions, some of the citizens had become discontent. They felt something important was missing in their lives. Their discontent did not go unnoticed. Some of the Sapey elite wanted to weaponise this discontent to gain more power. This created more chaos than they anticipated. This led to further widespread social unrest.
On top of the chaos, ambition and greed provoked another enemy. This enemy was on a mission to settle both new and old scores.
This story is based six years after the original story. The Downs Region is still suffering from a serious health crisis caused by the contaminated water. The main characters are desperately trying to find a cure for the illness that has been caused by the water.
One of the main characters has discovered frozen humanoids in hidden chambers. It appears they have been frozen for a long time. These chambers connect to a vast network of tunnels. While exploring the tunnels, one of the frozen humanoids disappears. It appears he has been stolen.
The story takes a step back in time to tell the story of the frozen humanoids. How and why were they frozen? This part of the story also explains the fall of ancient Sapey and the birth of the Sapiens. Can those from the past be able to coexist with those from the present?
Sapien Loop: Worlds Collide continues the story directly after the events of the second book. Orcilla and Yassmay continue their journey to find help. In doing so, they encounter a dissident group from the underground world.
Tiberius is secured as the puppet leader for the underground Linap. He is being used to control the surface world from the Downs Region. Tiberius is unhappy with this arrangement and desires to be fully in control.
Resistance has formed to take back the Downs Region from Tiberius and the underground Linap. They aim to turn the underground population against Tiberius. If that fails, their only hope is to join forces with the dissident group Orcilla and Yassmay encountered.
All worlds may be destined to collide. Will Sapey finally be free of tyranny, is it destined to be destroyed, or is it locked into another loop of oppression?
