Today, SPS hit parity with HIVE again for the first time in over a month. With HIVE trading down lately, that means SPS is trading for about $0.50 USD each.
As I mentioned in a previous post, I expect the demand for Splintershards tokens (SPS) to soar heading into the Chaos Legion pre-sale that will begin in October. The reasons are multiple:
Staked SPS is required to receive VOUCHER tokens which will be needed to purchase pre-sale Chaos Legion packs.
Liquid SPS will be allowed as a payment type for purchasing pre-sale Chaos Legion packs and will entitle the purchaser to a 10% discount.
Pre-sale pack buyers will convert other crypto into SPS immediately before buying packs at pre-sale in order to get the 10% discount price.
Splinterlands devs have said they will not dump the SPS used to purchase pre-sale packs back into the market. This means there will be enormous buying pressure, but much less selling pressure.
Since SPS will be allowed as a payment source for Chaos Legion packs, but the price of the packs is fixed at $4, this means the price of SPS at the time of pack purchase will be irrelevant to the pack buyer. SPS is the only payment method that will entitle a buyer to the 10% discount. Imagine these two scenarios:
#1) SPS is $1 each. Pack buyer acquires 3.6 SPS tokens and immediately uses them to buy one pack for $3.60 ($4 retail price minus 10% discount). Cost to buyer is $3.60.
#2) SPS is $10 each. Pack buyer acquires 0.36 SPS tokens and immediately uses them to buy one pack for $3.60.
In both SPS price scenarios, the buyer is still only paying $3.60 per pack. However, as more and more players need to acquire SPS to get the 10% pack discount (why would you pay any other way?), this will cause a price squeeze for SPS. If everyone is smart and uses SPS to get their pack discount, that means there will be demand for $3,600,000 worth of SPS just for pre-sale pack purchases.
In the past 24 hours, Hive-Engine volume in SPS has been about $140,000. Additionally, there are only 132,580,200 liquid SPS tokens as of this writing. More and more liquid SPS has been getting staked as players try to maximize their VOUCHER airdrops via SPS staking.
At the current price of $0.50 per SPS token, the pre-sale pack purchase demand would be for 7.2 million tokens. Obviously, as demand increases, so will the price, unless the holders of those 132+ million liquid SPS decide to all sell into the pre-sale event to hold prices down.
So the question is, how much will liquid SPS demand outpace liquid SPS supply?
I am contemplating teaming up with some of my @Hive.Pizza buds to purchase 2000 Chaos Legion pre-sale packs in order to take advantage of the guaranteed Gold Foil Legendary promo card, among other benefits like a 20% pack bonus and the chance to create our own Legendary Summoner! If there are others out there with similar ideas, I expect the demand for the VOUCHERS to be fierce!
How high do you think SPS and VOUCHER tokens will go during the Chaos Legion pre-sale?
As I often like to do in my Splinterlands posts, here's a fun battle I had recently where I got incredibly lucky and won only because my opponent had a couple of very unfortunately timed misses at the very end!
*None of this post is investment advice, simply entertaining discussion about the state of the @Splinterlands token market.
