Bitcoin Daily Update (day 195)

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I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about the indicators I use below and click here from my comprehensive trading strategy. Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30

Previous analysis / position: “If you are not in a position then opening a short with one third of your desired position size at each level of resistance should provide a favorable risk:reward.” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH.
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,188 - $6,225 | R = $6,309 & $6,385
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to have created a higher low and is bouncing off a hammer.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0589%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -4.73% | 26 = -6.27%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -9.38% | 128 = -11.81%
Volume: Volume decreasing as price tries to bounce.
FIB’s: 0.786 = $6,379 | 0.618 = $6,783
Candlestick analysis: Daily inverted hammer. Currently re exploring the wick.
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenken-Sen = $6,765 | Kijun-Sen and cloud = $7,165
TD Sequential: R6
Visible Range: Currently testing point of control (POC) with 2m - 1y lookback.
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = -1.16% | 1w = -13.14% | 2w = -11.11% | 1m = -3.67%
Bollinger Bands: Bouncing off bottom band. MA = $6,700 | Tightest squeeze we’ve seen since April 24 2017.
Trendline: N/A
Daily Trend: Chop with a with a bullish bias.
Fractals: Up = $7,426 | Down = $5,866
On Balance Volume: Moving with price / no div’s
ADX: ADX > 25 while -DI is trying to coverge
Chaikin Money Flow: Bear div on daily.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.98 | D = 44.13
Stoch: Posturing for buy signal

Summary: It still feels too early to breakdown $6,150 support. I feel like we need to range for another couple days or bounce up to the 12 EMA. I would stay away from opening a short at these levels in favor of waiting for a bounce. Retesting $6,600 - $6,700 and then breaking down $6,000 feels like the most likely outcome at this point.

If we do get a bounce then it will be a picture perfect shorting opportunity. You don’t not want to cost yourself that opportunity by entering too soon. Remain patient, let the price come to you, and never chase!

Thanks for reading!

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