Bitcoin Daily Update (day 190)

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I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about the indicators I use below and click here from my comprehensive trading strategy. Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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1 - 4 days: < $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “Volatility felt immanent...strongly believe it will be a correction to the downside...don’t get lulled to sleep the calm before the storm is often the best time to build a position” / Short ETH:USD at $285.57 & ETH:BTC at 0.04029
Patterns: Rising wedge broke down. Still inside descending triangle.
Horizontal support and resistance: Weak S = $6,970 | Stronger S = $6,800 | Will $7,000 become resistance?
BTCUSDSHORTS: > 30,000 = overbought | forming a flag pattern
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -1.37% | 26 is currently being tested for support
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -1.27% | 128 = -3.98%
Volume: Significant volume on every time frame. Watching for today’s to exceed spike on August 22nd and August 28th.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,844 | 0.5 = $7,116
Candlestick analysis: Extended range bearish candle. Weekly dark cloud cover.
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud held as resistance. Now watching for bearish TK Cross. Has re entered 12h cloud and is finding resistance at the Tenken-Sen.
TD Sequential: Price flip. TDST at $6,343
Visible Range: High volume node at $7,385 held as resistance. $6,488 is the point of control with a 1 year lookback.
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -5.33% | 24h = -5.33% 1w = -0.88% | 2w = +6.94% | 1m = +/- 0
Bollinger Bands: Daily MA = $6,817 | Bottom band = $6,167
Trendline: Broken to the downside. Did not retest trendline from descending triangle.
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Down = $6,789 | Up = should print on top of yesterday’s candle after today closes.
On Balance Volume: Following price / no div
ADX: ADX broke through 20 and now the -DI and +DI are sharply converging. ADX turning down on weekly.
Chaikin Money Flow: Rolling over hard on weekly, yet to turn down on daily.
RSI (30 setting): D = 50.35 | W = 49.8
Stoch: Sell signal on daily

Summary: $6,789 and $6,343 are my key areas of support. The following sequence is what I am expecting: selloff to $6,789 > bounce to $7,100 > selloff to $6,343 > bounce to $6,789 > breakdown $6,000.

If you are not in position then now is not the time to chase! Wait for a bounce and then be ready to short.

If you did enter in the last few days then now is the time to adjust stop losses to breakeven. Once/If we get a bounce and create a new lower high then it will be time to move stops into profit.

Thanks for reading!

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