Although looking at the past is a good exercise, in trading, anything can happen. To me, the world situation with Covid19 unfolds a completely different scenario than the previous two halvings. There is bad economic news every day and that is just good news for crypto.
On top of that, there are more and more traditional investors keeping an eye at BTC as traditional markets are quite messy and the total trading volume of Bitcoin is peanuts as 70% of investors just practice HODL.
I only see a long-term bullish market.

There is also an additional piece of info I just discovered today. Whale Alert
It tells you about big transactions getting in and out of exchanges, which is an additional input to consider before a market move. With beautiful graphics by the way.