BTC Course - Analysis. Textbook example of a triangle?
Up and down till it’s possible
The bitcoin price evolution behaves “unexpectedly” expectedly (that is a horrible contradiction!) ... ehm, I mean by that that I did not expect the price to obediently fall to the basic support, which defines a triangle together with the resistance of about 9000 USD, as in the previous analysis. This triangle is so obvious that it is almost unbelievable that there are traders who trade it to the end (they buy at the top and sell at the support). If they didn’t do that, it would not go so beautifully.
Today’s analysis will not be anything special. I still expect a reflection from the bottom edge of the triangle to the top. But, as it is so obvious, I feel some betrayal. A recent reflection of 7040 USD may not be “that” reflection. On the chart, there is a drawn channel (purple lines) and it has not been broken yet (at the time of writing). Theoretically, there can be selling-out without further reflections.
This threat is also supported by the rule of two reflections – this is an observable rule that can be expressed by roughly the following sentence:
“If the price is being reflected somewhere, it’s mostly reflected twice and during the third attempt, the breakthrough happens.”
If you look at the current development, you must ask whether the first reflection from February 5th could be counted into the formation, and thus the current return would be the third and therefore would be a breakthrough.
The recommendation is easy. If the price drops below the support, the sales continue. If you hold, sell. If the bitcoin price goes up from the channel, then you can expect a return to the top edge of the triangle. The willingness to go up is not very big. If there is a decrease in volume, then we do not even have to be in that situation. Buying is required to be short-term speculative, but this is still not a perfect place for the long-term HODL buy.
Sentiment in the market, interests on the stock exchange
TOP Traders at OKEX are in balance, both in votes and also in volume.
Bitfinex – 31 thousand BTC longs opened, 21 thousand shorts.
On Bitfinex, the interest rates on dollars went down from 0.07% to 0.055%. Bitcoins can be borrowed at 0.01% and that is a steady state.
Recommendation: Buy after leaving the channel, but only for a shorter period of time. When dropping under support, sell. I do not recommend HODL.
Disclaimer: These articles cannot be considered as an investment advice, and it is still a good idea to make speculation on bitcoin stock exchanges only with funds you can afford to lose. The high-profit potential is balanced with a significant risk of losing, especially here on the crypto markets.
Česky: http://btctip.cz/kurz-bitcoinu-analyza-obrat-se-zatim-nekona/