Russia is making advances on numerous fronts in Ukraine
This major shift in the war with the Russian Armed Forces making progress along the entire 1,000 mile front marks a qualitative change in the direction of the war
Highlights
Ukraine's army transitions to a posture of ‘strategic defence’
Russian units capture the town of Marinka
During the course of the last four weeks Russian forces have activated offensives on numerous fronts. These have led to Russian troops making numerous advances, the capture of Marinka being a major victory over the Ukrainian army.
In a recent interview Zelensky admitted that the summer offensive of the Ukrainian army had not been successful in achieving its goals of breaking through Russian defensive lines to the Azov sea. He he also signalled a major change for the AFU when he stated that Ukrainian forces on every front going to transition over to a strategic defence.
This pivot from an offensive stance to a defensive posture by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is further reinforced by General Syrsky, who is commander of the land forces of Ukraine. A few days ago General Syrsky admitted;
The enemy does not stop conducting offensive operations along the entire front.
We have taken measures to ensure the stability of our defence, preserve the lives of our soldiers and rational use of ammunition.
The Ukrainian Telegram channel Strana cites with the views of military analyst for the Bild newspaper Julian Ropke to support its view that the AFU is planning retreats from various fronts. According to Ropke;
His comments indicate further planned withdrawal of Ukrainian forces. This will likely affect Adviika, Klescheevka, Staromayorsky, perhaps even eastern Kupyasnk and other settlements.
The noted military analysts reproached the collective west for its lack of military assistance to Kiev and believes that the United States and its allies will attempt to force Ukraine into peace negotiations with the Russian Federation:
It doesn't take a genius to see that the West was Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table Russia.
Marinka
On December 1 Russian Armed Forces occupied most of the western outskirts of Marinka which is close to the city of Donestk which is the capital of the Donetsk oblast.
Ukrainian troops were still putting up resistance in a small area on the north-western outskirts of the city. By December 10 the Russian Armed Forces raised their flag over the liberated city of Marinka, completing the defeat of the Ukrainian forces stationed there. The Russian flag was planted on a ruined building on Poligraficheskaya Street.
Adveeka
Rybar Telegram channel
Since early December the Russian forces have been making steady progress of the southern and northern flanks of Adveeka. According to the Military Correspondents of the Russian Spring Telegram channel the Russian army made a flank breakthrough at Stepovoy. South-east of Stepovoy Russian soldiers advanced 300 m along the forest belt north of the Adveesky Coke Plant.
North and north-west of the village of Krasnogorovka Russian troops continued attacking in the direction of a Novokalinovo advancing south of the village.
Meanwhile, on the same day in the area of the Adveeka industrial zone in the south of the city, Russian forces gained a foothold in the area and were regrouping to resume assault operations in the direction of the residential sector of the city.
Rybar Telegram
On December 9 a Ukrainian soldier with the call sign Nikola told German broadcaster ZDF that;
We are just constantly been attacked, we have lost a lot of guys, simply don't have the strength to fight any more. being shelled by artillery and bombarded with drones.
According to the noted Russian military blogger Boris Rozhin Russian troops had advanced in the waste heap area with the fighting shifting to the residential area of Adveeka.
On December 11 the noted Russian military blogger Boris Rozhin stated on his Telegram channel that Ukrainian troops had lost several positions in the area of the treatment facilities at the Adveesky coking plant with fighting beginning directly in the suburbs of the city.
Rybar Telegram
Rozhin stated that:
The enemy was taken by surprise, not expecting such audacity from our troops, who are satisfactory weather conditions and poor visibility. At the moment, our tigers have expanded the mouth of the breakthrough in the area of Kolosov Street, cleared enemy positions and began to consolidate.
Today Russian troops have entered the Adveeka residential district of Kirova in the southern sector of the town, north-west of the industrial area which they have already captured.
Bakhmut Front
On November 29 Russian forces broke through the defences of the Ukrainian army near Bakhmut and established control of the strategically important village of Khromove and pushed Ukrainian troops from several other villagers. On November 30 soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces made multiple breakthroughs on the Bakhmut front breaking through Ukrainian defences in Bogdanovka, west of the city and taking control of the village of Stepnoye which is north-west of Bakhmut.
On December 6 Russian units made steady advances to the north (from the Berkhovsky reservoir) and south of Bakhmut in the area of Klescheevka and Andreevka.
In the last two days the Russian Armed Forces have reached the main road out of Bakhmut to Chasov Yar. They have also advanced over 2 km from the city into the agricultural lands west of Bakhmut. Besides this, Russian units have regained positions towards Orkhovo-Vasilyvka and Minkinvka which Ukraine troops captured at such a high price back in the summer.
South of Bakhmut artillery preparation are underway for an assault on Ostrov which is west of Klescheeva. Numerous reports indicate that on this particular front there is been a large drop in activity of Ukrainian artillery which has led to numerous infantry units retreating with dozens of men surrendering to Russian forces.
On December 11 the Russian army advanced to within 1.3 km north-east of Ivanovskoye west of Bakhmut. According to the Russian military telegram Slavyangrad the Russian army has made;
significant gains in the Serebryanskoye Forestry, indicating tumult in the recurrent Ukrainian defences east of Zherebets River, possibly suggesting their withdrawal west of the Zherebets. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also retreating near Chasov Yar in the DPR: abandoning both their fortifications and their dead.
Apparently, AFU units no longer control the roads in this area meaning they can no longer bring in ammunition and reinforcements.
Kupyansk
In late November further to the north Russian soldiers made a steady advance and took control of half of Sinkovka north-east of Kupyansk. Since then Russian troops have captured a number of Ukrainian army strongholds near Kupyansk, putting considerable pressure on the Ukrainian Armed Forces which have only one supply route to maintain its troops on the left bank of the river Oskol. There have also been advances made by Russian troops in the area of Torskoye and Yampolevka.
What comes next?
After months of talking up the Ukrainian summer offensive the Western media has been begun to acknowledge that Russia is winning the war.
It is working on a new narrative regarding the conflict. Now there is a growing panic at the awareness that not only has Ukraine’s much vaunted offensive failed but, even worse, the Russkies might even win this conflict, which would of course put the whole of Europe in jeopardy of an imminent Russian invasion!
This new narrative is exemplified in an article in today’s New York Times. Instead of the triumphant propaganda about how Ukraine was going to drive the Russians out of the Zaporizhzia region and down to the Black Sea/Sea of Azov; we now have a horrified recognition that the West has to try and freeze the conflict in Ukraine through so called peace negotiations.
The object of such negotiations, similar to the Minsk 1 and 2 ‘Peace Accords’, would be to save the Kiev junta from complete destruction, preserve a rump Ukrainian state and buy time for the build up the AFU for a future attack on Russian forces.
New York Times
Today the New York Times is reporting that the Pentagon will send a senior general Lieutenant General Antonio Aguto to help Kiev develop a new military strategy after the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive this summer. We should recall that General Aguto was the mastermind behind the summer offensive of the AFU which failed so spectacularly. The Times reports;
American and Ukrainian military leaders looking for new strategy can begin implementing next year to revive Kiev's chances.
According to the New York Times, American advisers are encouraging Ukraine to adopt a more restrained option, aimed at holding existing territories and accumulating forces for a potential future offensive. The goal of this joint strategy worked out by America and Ukraine is to create significant force with which Russia;
will have to reckon and enter into meaningful negotiations at the end of 2024 or already in 2025.
Unfortunately, for the US and its puppet allies, they have completely lost the strategic initiative which now resides with the Russians. Moscow will now decide what happens to Ukraine as it presses forward with its strategy of steady incremental advances on multiple fronts. This attritional warfare is bleeding the AFU dry of manpower. No amount of US/EU money or new ‘wonder waffen’ will halt this irreversible decline in the combat abilities of the Ukrainian army.
This major shift in the war with the Russian Armed Forces making progress along the entire 1,000 mile front marks a qualitative change in the direction of the war
As the AFU frantically prepares new defensive lines west of Adveeka, Bakhmut and other key cities, many are speculating that it is only a matter of time before Moscow unleashes a large scale offensive designed to break the back of the Ukrainian Army, much like the Red Army’s Operation Bagration did to the German Army Group Centre in summer 1944.
Only time will tell if this transpires. One thing is for sure: the US proxy war in Ukraine is failing badly as it struggles to cope with severe overstretch as it diverts precious ammunition to the IDF.