SPS rewards are going down? No way... / SPSの報酬が減る？本当にござるかぁ...
[ENGLISH]
Early this morning (Japan time), Dave made an announcement saying that level caps for the Modern League will be introduced soon. I guess this means we'll once again be able to do things like build a Silver-level collection and aim for 1st place on the leaderboard, just like in the old days! Not that my results are anywhere near that good, though!
Excited about the news, I asked Chappy about it, and apparently something similar to the bracket system currently being used in Survival will be introduced. Come to think of it, I remember hearing about something like this before.
More details can be found in the link below.
Note: The system may be changed from what is described in the article below when it is actually implemented.
Looking at this article, the maximum card levels for each bracket are the same as the old level caps. The minimum levels seem somewhat different, though. I don't remember the details anymore.
In my case, I'll probably be playing in the Silver bracket. I've been buying Summoners specifically to match the Silver League level requirements. Considering the rewards, it might be better to go for Gold, but buying cards to bring my collection up to Gold level at this point would be pretty difficult!
So, it looks like I'll be playing in the Silver bracket. But that got me wondering: how many players are actually playing Modern right now?
Looking at the data on PeakMonsters, it seems that there are around 10,000 Modern battles per day.
If we assume that each player needs 15 wins to complete their Daily Focus, and with a 50% win rate that means 30 battles per player, that would give us roughly 333 players.
Wait... 333 players? Is that really all? Isn't there supposed to be a "K" after that? Maybe the number of battles is 10,000K or something?
Even if we divide the Daily Average of 51,600 by 30, we only get 1,720 battles.
Oh... so there really are only that many players playing Modern right now?
I was going to say that the reward distribution would change depending on the number of players, but if there aren't enough players to receive all of the 90,000 SPS allocated to the Silver bracket, does that mean the seasonal average would be 112.5 SPS per player?
That's pretty low.
If you play in Gold, you'd get 600 SPS, right? That's a little more than what we have now. But I have quite a few cards that don't meet the minimum required level, so the downside could actually be significant. I'll have to look into that.
But then, how exactly is this seasonal average being calculated?
The Silver share is 6%, while Gold is 12%, so Gold's share is simply twice as large. Yet the average SPS earned per season is more than five times higher.
Diamond has a 25% share, which is only a little more than twice Gold's share, but the average seasonal earnings are 1,875 SPS, more than three times as much.
This is quite... huh? Wait a second.
90,000 SPS for the entire Silver bracket?
Why is it 90,000 SPS when the Silver bracket's share is only 6%?
After reading the article more carefully, I realized that the calculations in the article were based on a total SPS pool of 1,500,000 SPS at the time it was written.
Since the current total Modern pool is 900,000 SPS, that means the actual amount would be 60% of those figures. 😱
So Silver would be 67.5 SPS, and even Gold would only be 360 SPS?
That's a pretty big reduction. The amount of SPS earned each season is going to decrease.
Something doesn't seem right, though. There is quite a gap between the number of players I'm estimating from the battle count and the number of players shown in this table, so the data isn't very useful as a reference.
Even back in March, when this article was written, the number of players doesn't seem to have been that different. So what's going on here?
Am I misunderstanding how to read the table?
In any case, I'm not going to start buying cards now just to bring my collection up to Gold level, so for now I'll just wait for more information.
I have a feeling that the SPS rewards for Modern players are going to decrease. Then the question is: where does the SPS that isn't distributed go?
My guess is that it simply remains in the pool and extends the period over which it can be distributed.
But who knows?
The final result could change depending on the SPS distribution ratios and the battle reward calculation formula.
I don't have particularly high expectations, though...
The images below include the BATTLE URL with a referral link.
If you are thinking of getting started, take a look at the BATTLE before you sign up.
[日本語]
本日未明（日本時間）にDaveからアナウンスがありました。モダンリーグのレベルキャップが間もなく導入されるという事です。昔のようにシルバーリーグレベルでカードを揃えて Leaderboard の1位を狙うとかが出来るようになるってことですね！私はそんなに成績良くないんですけどね！
ワクワクしながらちゃっぴーに聞いてみたら、現在サバイバルで導入されているブラケット制のようなものが導入されるってことのようです。そういえばそんな話あったなぁ。
詳細は以下リンク。
注：実装時に下記の記事から変更がある可能性があります。
この記事を見るとカードレベルの上限は昔のレベルキャップと同じですね。下限はなんか違う気がする。詳細は覚えていないけど。
私の場合、シルバーリーグでプレイすることになるだろうね。サモナーのレベルをシルバーリーグに合わせて購入してるから。報酬を考えればゴールドにしたほうが良いのかもしれないけど、今からゴールドに合わせてカードを買うのは大変だ！
と、いう事でシルバーリーグでのブラケットでプレイすることになるんだけど、今のモダンをプレイしているプレイヤーはいったいどのくらいいるんだろう？
Peak Monsters でデータを見てみるとモダンのバトル数は毎日10,000前後のようです。一人当たりのバトル数がデイリーを取得するために15勝、勝率50%で30戦と仮定すると 約333人。
え？333人？そんな少ないの？Kとかついてない？バトル数が10,000Kとかじゃない？Daily Avarage の 51,600 を 30 で割っても 1,720 バトル。
そっかー...今ってその程度のプレイヤー数しかいなのか。
プレイヤー数によって報酬の比率が変わるよねって言おうかと思ったけど、人数が少なくてシルバー ブラケットに与えられる報酬 90,000 SPS が配られる人数に届かなさそうだから、シーズン平均で 112.5 SPS なのか。少ないな。
ゴールドリーグでプレイすれば 600 SPSか。現状よりちょっと増える？でもカードレベルの下限が届いてないカードが結構あるからマイナスが大きいかもしれない。その辺は要確認かな。
しかし、このシーズン平均の計算はどうなっているんだろう。シルバーの比率は6％、ゴールドの比率は12%で倍になっているだけなのに、シーズン平均の獲得SPSは5倍以上。
ダイアモンドは25%だからシェアはゴールドの2倍ちょっとなのに、シーズン平均獲得量は 1,875 SPSと3倍を超える。これはかなり...ん？ ちょっと待て。シルバーブラケット全体で 90,000 SPS？
シルバーブラケット比率は6%なのになんで 90,000 SPSなんだ？と思ってよくよく読んでみたらこの記事の書かれた時点では全体で 1,500,000 SPS の計算だったみたいですねー 現状ではモダン全体で 900,000 SPS だからそれを換算すると60%ってことか。😱
シルバーなら 67.5 SPS、ゴールドでも 360 SPS？ これは減るな。毎シーズンで獲得するSPSが減るな。
なんかプレイしてる人数とこの表の人数に乖離があって参考にならんですね。この記事が書かれた3月でもそれほどプレイヤー数に差はないようなのでどういうことなのか。私が表の読み方をミスってるのか？
とはいえ、今からカードを購入してゴールドレベルにするとかそんなことはしないので現状は情報待ちですね。これはモダンプレイヤーの報酬SPSが減るような気がするなーじゃぁ、減らした分のSPSがどこに行くのかって話だけど。多分プールにそのまま残って配布できる期限をのばすんじゃないですかねーしらんけどー
まーもしかしたらSPSの配布比率やバトル報酬の計算式によって変わるかもしれないわけだし。あんまり期待できないけどね...
以下の画像をは紹介リンク付きBATTLE URLを含みます。
これから始めようと思っているなら、バトルを見てから登録してみてね。