It just doesn't have the same look, does it? American Family Field...I don't know, I get it, it's money. You'll always be Miller Park to me, however.
How did I do last week in DFS MLB baseball? Rotten! My strategy apparently needs some tweaking. I can't compete against the algos...but I'm not going to give up. Well, I'm not going to give up until my DFS balance on Fanduel is $0, that is.
After last week's action, let's take a look at some key stats.
Updated through Sunday, this charts shows you that if you drafted the starting pitcher against the Detroit Tigers for every game against the Tigers, you would have averaged 32.86 points per start. I broke down this week's schedule to get an idea of who was playing the worst 5 offenses in the league from this perspective. I'll update this matrix going forward daily:
I put another matrix together of hitters points earned, on average, against opposing pitching staffs:
This is highlighting that leadoff hitters against the Arizona D'backs yield 13.69 pts on average. Lead off hitters against the Tampa Bay Rays, in contrast, earn 7.32 pts on average. That's quite a swing.
That's a lot of data, right? Well, that's baseball for you...and I'm not even close to being intelligent enough to figure out what the big boys (and girls, of course), DFS pros, MLB admin, or even scouts, are looking at.
At a high level, I calculated the following values. xFIP is a number I calculated using a mix of starting pitcher xFIP and relief pitching xFIP. My Brewers in theory are facing the worst pitching staff tonight. Yet from a Vegas implied run perspective, the Padres are theoretically expected to score the most runs tonight. So...what to do? I'm sensing the Padres will be expensive, however.
From a starting pitcher standpoint, some thoughts for tonight:
You'd think I'd win some damn fiat with all this research! Even get a better return than Doge, you know? At the very least, I can do what us accountants do so well (some of us, at least), and audit this tomorrow. I might start auditing the grand winner's lineup each time too. Maybe there are some lessons for me to learn there?
Well, with all of that said, good luck tonight if you are playing! Let's go Brewers (and let's keep winning!).
