Chinese households begin to pay down debt

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Many economists have been surprised at the relatively weak growth in China since they relaxed their covid rules; they had expected a surge in spending similar to that in the west when the economy re-opened.

But growth in China is weak because their households and businesses are deleveraging.

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Total debt as a share of GDP hit 295% in China in 2022, way more than the 257% in the USA and the average of 258% in the eurozone, according to the Bank for International Settlements. There are now signs the debt is being paid down; BIS said the debt in the non-financial sector dropped by about $1 trillion to $49.9 trillion in 2022 from the year before.

China's zero covid policies and the attacks by the Chinese govt on various industries from online tuition to gaming, have made Chinese businesses cautious. No-one knows if their business will be targetted by Xi next, so they're focusing on paying down debt instead of borrowing to expand.

When businesses and households deleverage, you get weak growth. For example, see what happened to the USA after the Great Financial Crash of 2008 - households in particular made ferocious efforts to reduce debt, and average growth in the USA went from 4% prior to the crash, to 2% after it. A similar thing happened to Japan after their crash in the late 1980's.

It usually takes about two decades for the deleveraging to complete. In the meanwhile, China will have steady but low growth. The pre-covid boom isn't going to return.

Chinese households begin to pay down debt | Ecency