Note:
Before reading too much into this please know that this is NOT an investment advice. If you trade based on any information here all the profits or losses are your own responsibility.
Recently I came across a good article from 2012 that reveals top 10 statistics for Bitcoin. I was really intrigued by it and decided to give each one a try and see if they agree with each other and can be used for predicting Bitcoin price, and to what degree they can be relied upon.
Of course, I'm also completely aware that you can't create rumours and news (for the most part 🤥) so ultimately there's no way any prediction is going to be 100% accurate. Which is a relief actually. But either way I think I will have learned something 6-7 months down the line. It's not meant to be either an objective or a methodical study either. It's merely a fun and crude experiment.
Base prediction to compare with:
I've read predictions since as early as Nov 2017 about the prices that in 2018 Bitcoin will be priced from $4k to $40k. Here are a couple of sources I've read this from, for the lowest and the highest price respectively.
At the moment I'm not particularly biased in one way or the other, but most of the articles I've read so far seem to agree that if Bitcoin can't keep the 8k resistance then the next stops are going to be 6k and 4k, even if for the shortest of time. And now that we're in bear market any "prediction" right now will mainly be that of the lowest price. A couple of months down the line it would be interesting to see the results.
So let's get into it and see if we get anything out of it.
Market Cap:
Today's market cap: $165B
Prediction: Looking at the above graph we're likely to see the lowest of $100B - $135B market caps for the price to reach between $6k and $8k in the next month.
Price chart
As of today: $BTCUSD = $9.3K
I've started learning Technical Analysis a couple of months back myself, so do let me know if you think I'm wrong somewhere. The trendline analysis suggest that it's still bearish phase since the major resistance isn't broken yet. Barring something happening out of the ordinary, it's very likely to stay below the major resistance line.
The Elliot wave analysis along with RSI and the Fib levels suggest that we have two possibilities at this point:
a] Since we've already into the Elliot wave correction phase - if we continue to follow the bear trend directly, we're likely to fall to $8.2k price (0.6 Fib)
b] On the positive side, we may first fall to $8.8k price (0.5 Fib) before going as high as $10.4k and then dropping again towards $8.2k on a longer term.
Prediction: The lowest we could go right now is 8.2k. This is on week basis though. We'll probably end up going lower than that in next month.
Exchange Volume Distribution
Not sure how to analyse it just yet. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Network Hashing Rate
From the price prediction standpoint, there's no useful conclusion you can draw from this, but here's the chart anyway because I like it :)
Prediction: 😐
Hash Rate Distribution
Other than how miners are distributed and who has the most mining power I don't think there's any real useful information here.
Prediction: 😑
Number of Daily Transactions
This is no longer a good metric to compare now that exchanges are batching transactions. But just to indulge:
Prediction: $2k - $3k
However, outputs are a better metric to see the blockchain activity. So if you look at the chart below, outputs today most closely match the price around Aug 2017.
Prediction: $3k - $4k
Daily Transaction Volume
This is actually unpredictable, but just to play along:
Prediction: $8k
Bitcoin Days Destroyed
This seems to be another metric that's probably rendered useless. I'm assuming so because it was hard to find this chart on most websites. I had to search it separately and it wasn't shown upfront. The one website I could find indicates that the current BDD matches with that of March 2014 price!
Prediction: $1.5k (¯\_(ツ)_/¯)
Average Transaction Confirmation Time
I don't think this metric correlates with bitcoin price at all. This is the matter of whether you're paying enough fees or not! Correct me if I'm wrong here. Here's the chart:
Prediction: 😶
Largest Recent Transactions
Okay, I didn't find "largest" recent transactions, but I did find Median Transaction Value chart which looks really interesting.
Prediction: $6k
Conclusion: Given that the article is from 2012, I was actually expecting to get weird results. I don't think we're ever going to $1.5k price though. This shouldn't be given more weight than what you'd give to a guess. But it was interesting to find some metrics pointing to 6k to 8k prices which I think we're heading to. We'll see!
Now time for some antidotes and some interesting things I found while writing this post: