Now I know this is different from my other content, but elections are extremely interesting to me. So, I will put on my pundit cap and attempt to predict the 2018 senate race a year before it happens with my limited knowledge of politics.
These are the states that have a 99 percent chance of not flipping. The west coast and Hawaii are extremely left-leaning, and so are Utah, Nebraska, and Wyoming. I'm rating Mississippi as a red state because the stars aligned for Doug Jones, and I think Rodger Wicker will have an easy reelection campaign. I also filled in most of the Northwest for Democrats, but only in states that are traditionally democrat with popular incumbents.
I've filled in states unlikely to flip unless strong candidates challenge incumbents who have a moment of weakness. Tennessee will stay red if a decent Republican wins the primary, and Ted Cruz is very popular in Texas and could only loose with a spike in Hispanic turnout. Heinrich will win his seat in New Mexico if the Republicans don't put up a quality candidate, and the same can be said for Massachusetts and New Jersey. Keep an eye out on New Jersey, though, because Menendez (the incumbent senator) is supposedly extremely unpopular, and if there are any shocker results I think it will come from the Garden State. Massachusetts will probably stay under Warren's column, but an upset is possible if the upcoming months are favorable to Republicans. Virginia also falls under this category, except Tim Kaine will almost definitely win in this state that has been getting bluer and bluer as DC sprawls out into it.
This is where things get interesting. Amy Klobaucher in Minnesota is a popular incumbent, but could be taken down in an increasingly red state. Even with Al Franken's recent misconducts, I believe she will keep her seat. In other states growing more Republican that start with M, I believe Maine and Michigan will probably stay Democratic. Now for the first really competitive races being called. I predict that Nevada, a state increasingly Democrat that Trump couldn't flip, will boot out Dean Heller, becoming the Democrats only flip. Arizona is also trending blue, but I believe Hispanic turnout will be too low, and Kelli Ward will gain her Senate seat. Indiana was only won in 2012 by a Democrat who ran against a Roy Moore-like candidate, and if Mike Pence campaigns for the Republican nominee, then it's an easy pickup. This means that I predict Republicans will hold the senate. Even though history is on the Democrats side, the map is just too good for Republicans.
You know how I said Democrats had history on their side? Well, this is what I'm talking about. Several rust belt states, which are now tossups, will go to the Democrats with razor-thin margins. History dictates that the president's party doesn't do too well in the midterms, and this will most likely take the very split-down-the-middle Rust Belt into Democrats hand. Expect all of these candidates winning by less than five points.
These are my final predictions. Republicans will probably field strong candidates in Montana and North Dakota, flipping them to the R side. Senate republicans always have a hard time getting into Missouri, and with history on her side Claire McCaskill will win reelection by two points or less. Florida will also be extremely close, but with history and a decent Hispanic turnout, Democrats will probably pull out a win. West Virginia is my prediction that I am most unsure of. Both senator Joe Manchin and Donald Trump are popular there, and it will be a tough campaign. If Trump holds rallies in major West Virginian cities, then Joe Manchin will probably lose, but I don't think that will happen.
So, those are the senate predictions by a political amateur. I expect for me to be entirely wrong, but if I do get it right, then I can say I am the political god. Hope you enjoying this deviation in content, but this will most likely be my only political blog.
Pielover out.
