Today (December 29 2020), Bitcoin dominates the crypto market with 69.3% of the crypto market. If we consider there are today 18.6 million bitcoins in circulation, that means the whole crypto market today is worth about 26.8 million bitcoin. And if we discard the mere 400 BTC worth of market cap of QRL, 26.8 million bitcoin is the current market value of what we can refer to as the more or less quantum-blockchain heist vulnerable crypto market.
Maybe Bitcoin and other cryptos that, with today's implementation will be vulnerable to tomorrow's technology, will manage to become fully quantum resistant before QC reaches maturity, and if so everything will be iree and our crypto investments will be safe. But what if they won't end up being ready in time and a scenario like the quantum blockchain heist in my novel Ragnarok Conspiracy comes to pass?
Might be wise to hedge our crypto holdings with some crypto that actually is quantum computing resistant, even today. The great thing, we can hedge our cryptos today for peanuts, lets look.
There are currently 72.9 milion $QRL Quanta in circulation. That means, 2.7 $QRL for every $BTC worth of non-QR-resistant crypto. At current market value, hedging 1 $BTC of non-QR-resistant crypto with an amount of $QRL that will give you an equal slice of the total market cap of currently existing QR-resistant crypto, will set you back as little as $0.40. That is $0.40 of QC resistant crypto to hedge $26,700 of non-QC resistant crypto. Sounds too good to be true, right? And it probably is. If non-QC resistant crypto truly ends up collapsing, likely much of the crypto market would collapse with it. The collapse might not be binary. What if just, at first, like in Ragnarok Conspiracy, the unspent outputs of the exposed, reused signing keys become vulnerable while a viable attack against the actual network remains a longer term thread?
It might be wise to hedge with a tiny bit more $QRL than just $0.40 for every $BTC. Consider hedging 100 $QRL per $BTC. That (today) is just $14.40 per $BTC or roughly about 1 cent for every $20 of crypto holdings. This will get you 37 times the slice of the current quantum resistant crypto pie as the one you have of the non QR crypto pie. I believe this cheap hedge today should be in everyone's portfolio, especially given the current pricing.
So how about hedging $HIVE? I think $HIVE is a different story. Remember, #HIVE, like many of the not-just-monetary crypto's actually depends on signing key reuse. As such, even the first wave of quantum technology based attacks could devastate #HIVE if the platform isn't ready in time. Further, #HIVE is more than just money, it's a platform, but most of all it's a community. A community that will need funds to rebuild in case the platform gets demolished by quantum computing. The community has shown once before that it can rebuild and go on under a different flag, and if this becomes necessary because of QC, the next time around it will need quite a bit of funds to start back up from the ashes.
Like $QRL, $HIVE today is very much undervalued. Conversely, for one to moon, the other will likely parish. I hope #HIVE will win the race against quantum computing and become quantum resistant before a technological QC sprint makes a quantum blockchain heist viable before the chain is ready. $HIVE shouldn't be compared to currency type cryptos. Think about #HIVE as you think of other social platforms. Remember Facebook has a market cap about the same size as the whole crypto market. Hive is at a mere 42 million. If #HIVE lives up to its potential as an even mildly competitive social platform, the market cap of the platform could one day approach 10 B. #HIVE mooning at 100x its current value is very conceivable. If #HIVE loses the race for quantum resistance though, it won't be worth a thousand dollar until the time it has been rebuild and a new platform rises from its ashes. In the latter case though, $QRL is likely to moon, 100x easy.
In a sense, the $HIVE/$QRL pair is a good foundation for a two-tails oriented portfolio. We have a, what? 5% probability, maybe, that #HIVE becomes a top social platform and $HIVE does a 100x. We also have, what? 10% probability, maybe, that developments in QC will tank $HIVE but make $QRL do a 100x. I might be off on these chances, but given this assessment,end given the desire to contribute in case the worst happens and #HIVE needs to rise from its ashes, it seems a 2/1 ratio on $HIVE/$QRL might be a decent strategy.
So that's it.
