BTCUSD Update: Since the moderate FOMC meeting, this market has gone from a low of 3446 to a high of 4415. What serves as another example of how sentiment drives price in the short term. While 12% of the decline is encouraging, this market has not shown any real change in momentum in general. Still.
The bearish trend line that has recently been established is still at stake. While this is the case, the price still has a good chance of breaking the next support in the 3,600 area. If that happens, 3K will remain a real possibility.
The price structure determines our short-term outlook, nothing more. And the price structure changes. To consider new operations, the price must do 2 things: 1) Build a bullish structure, 2) Eliminate the 4650 area. That's what our plan dictates, and it has saved us a lot of money in terms of potential losses as This market was sold.
We intend to separate our strategies and not mix long-term positions with short-term operations. That's why we still have inventory and we do not intend to sell it, especially at minimums. Not using any leverage has been one of the key factors in the management of our long-term risk and avoided any margin settlement that so many had to deal with.
Our plan has not changed since this market eliminated the support of 4800 and is: leave it aside. It is simple and effective. Reacting, or trying to trade with both sides of this market is simply not worth the risks. Just ask all those who insisted on falling short below 4K. We do not abbreviate these markets, and even warn those who wanted about the greater risk they face.
We are open to the possibility of long aggressive commercial exchanges, but only AFTER the price is proved. Going back and forming a higher minimum is a scenario that is in line with our upward price structure.
Unlike the number of gurus in the table who call your attention (just look at all the tables in the comments section), we do not pretend to know the future. We do not make predictions and, instead, we adjust as the market changes. We follow our rules, evaluate the price patterns and always manage the risk. All behaviors that do not attract the pack.
In summary, Bitcoin still does not show signs of continuous strength. This may change in the coming weeks, BUT until it is proven that there is NOTHING to do here. The background may be in, but we will not know until the structure provides the evidence. Remember, an upper or lower part is not an event, it is a process.
Buying under is always a better option than buying a high, BUT you should always consider: what happens if it is reduced? 3450 may be the end, but there is NO precision in this game. What happens if 2K is the bottom? It's not about being right or wrong, it's about how much RISK you can handle.
You'll get more in this game if you focus on risk management and best practices instead of focusing on lines on a table or, worse, on rewards. Have you ever noticed? The less experienced (especially the sellers) are always pushing: "I'm right", "How much I earned", "The RSI" or publishing 22 updates in less than 22 hours. If you want to learn how to make your money work, start by asking yourself: "What if I'm wrong?" Everything starts there.
