Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: Week 3 Day 7: Focus on underlying forces
17 September 2017
Underlying forces
Crypto's market capitalization was down to $120 bn but bitcoin still accounted for hal (48.7%) on 17 September.
The usual weekend drop in trading was visible, and most alt-coins were down (except for dash) over 24 hours till 12 noon on 17 September. The difference from the day before was negligeable or easily reversible on an average day's volatility. Only OmiseGO was close to the 50% gain in price by 1 December but it was still 20% away.
Underlying developments therefore had more impact on the % probability.
Crypto developments
New in U.S. — alt-coin IRA accounts
Goldco's cryptocurrency subsidiary, CoinIRA, announced the launch of digital Individual Retirement Account (IRA) bundles from 16 September.
The bundles come pre-packaged with a combination of the most dominant and best-known digital currencies, including bitcoin, litecoin, ripple, ether and ether classic, reports coinreport.
Bitcoin’s price in 2017 has quadrupled, while ether and litecoin have seen 50-fold and 20-fold increases, respectively, coinreport reminds us.
The proportion of each digital currency held in the IRA bundles will fluctuate based on the risk appetite of the investor, who can select from bundles categorized as conservative, moderate or aggressive. The bundles are available in amounts of $25,000, $50,000 and $100,000.
Scoring: 1% on Viability/Refuge indicators
First decentralized gaming loyalty programme
The global e-commerce market in the online games segment was US$95.2 billion in 2016 and is growing rapidly, reports bitcoinprbuzz. Customer loyalty and engagement can make or break companies, it notes.
An announcement from Moscow on 13 September said SRG is to launch a bockchain based gaming loyalty platform. The company announced its token sale launching on October 4, 2017.
SRG forecasts its members will add more than 11 million wallets by 2019.
Scoring: 1% on Viability indicator
Biggest cryptocurrency and blockchain event on September 26
Blockchain Life 2017 opens on 26 September in St.Petersburg, Russia. It's the biggest conference on bitcoin, blockchain, cryptocurrency, and mining in Russia, says newsbtc.com.
Its website says 1000 attendees are expected wth 12 speakers.
Scoring: 1% on Viability indicator
Why China is banning BTC exchanges
On the Medium blog site, Jon Creasy suggests China's clamping down on crypto exchanges because President Xi is preparing for his 18 October re-election and needs the support of the traditional, Communist voting bloc.
He predicts the exchanges wlll be back up after the election.
Scoring: 1% on Governance indicator
Bitcoin: Three Ways the Bubble Could Pop
That's the headline on a lengthy article by "Crypto Investor" on Medium.
His answer:
- A new Mt. Gox, scrutinizing Bitfinex and Tether in particular
- A global crackdown on ICOs (token crowdfundiing)
- Closing of fiat gateways
Scoring: 1% on Viability indicator
Eye on Switzerland
Crypto Investor has an interesting take on Switzerland.
"Switzerland is [...] the epicenter for ICOs. Several of the highest grossing ICOs have been launched in the country due to its relaxed stance on cryptocurrencies. Here, cryptocurrencies are considered assets rather than securities. Note that this is one of the most important distinctions in regulations as many more rules are imposed on securities and more protections are put in place for investors," he writes.
"Switzerland houses the prime hub for crypto, a small city named Zug just south of Zurich. Dubbed “Crypto Valley” after 'Silicon Valley,' it hosts some of the biggest names in crypto including giants like Ethereum, Bitcoin Suisse, Shapeshift, and many more. Crypto companies operating here don’t need any special licenses as they do in, say, New York. Zug is a highly pro business location and the government seems keen to work with startups as much as possible.
"Crypto Valley Association, a consortium of multiple large companies that fills a similar role as incubators do in Silicon Valley, recently issued a statement warning about the lack of 'traditional support structures' in ICOs. I would encourage everyone to read this statement (dated 7 September) as it encapsulates all of the current issues with ICOs.
"What’s interesting is that the representative of the world’s epicenter for ICOs is warning investors about the lack of security, documentation, and overall level of professionalism in token launches. While the overall goal of the statement is to increase awareness and illustrate good faith for working with the Swiss government, it is worth noting that even the world’s most welcoming hub for crypto acknowledges the current Wild West of ICOs."
Scoring: 1% on Governance indicator
Earlier commentaries
Excel version
Click here for an Excel 1997-2003 version of this table with records for every day until now, free for download. There's also an Excel version of the shorter summary screenshot used above.
Superforecasting
Indicators
I've listed my seven indicators and explanations of what I consider important here.