Based on the results from the first 2 rounds, for this third round, i'm going to try a different approach. Betting on the favorite even with falling odds has meant a 50% win rate at best during round 1. If odds are in the low $2 range, that doesn't leave much room for error.
For round 3, the picks will be filtered as follows:
The change from previous rounds is that i'm not restricting the pick to the favorite.
| Match | Prediction | Odds | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama vs Racing | Racing | 2.39 | L |
| Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne | Melbourne | 2.5 | L |
| Al Ahly vs Zemalek | Al Ahly | 2 | L |
| Lillestrom vs Rosenborg | Draw | 3.25 | L |
| Arsenal vs Atletico | Draw | 3.29 | W |
| CA Bizertin vs CA Sfaxien | CA Sfaxien | 2 | L |
| Montpellier vs Saint Etienne | Saint Etienne | 3.1 | W |
| Le Havre vs Ajaccio | Le Havre | 2.45 | W |
| Austria Lusteneau vs Wacker Innsbruck | Wacker | 2 | W |
| Aberdeen vs Hearts | Draw | 3.75 | L |
It has been an interesting experience collecting this data. A couple of pre-conceived notions like the importance of form, the likelihood of favorites backed by the crowd winning have shown to be rather unreliable. Let's see what this round brings us.
So this round, we got 4/10 right and made an 8% profit. There were 3 games that could have gone our way and that would have meant a ~60% profit but the ball's round and is why money management's the key.
So over 30 matches of making picks based on falling odds, there were a total of 12 correct picks. That's not much better than making completely random picks. I do like the last round's filter the best and i'll work on refining it a bit more. Getting 6/10 would be sweet :)
