A Bull trap:
As in my previous article was using the combination of 3 indicators to find the bullish and bearish trend of Bitcoinon one day chart.
1st: Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator.
2nd: MACD custom indicator multiple time frame , this is the same MACD indicators that we use normally but this indicator shows the buying and sell signals with crosses.
3rd: Stochastic indicator.
Ater placing these three indicators I realized that since October 2019 the Bitcoin is following a certain pattern for the bear move.The Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator shows whether the priceline is in up or down trend . When it changes to green color it means that priceline is in bullish trend and when it changes to red color then it means that price action is in down trend. Now after observing the daily chart it can be seen that whenever this vervoort indicator turns green then the MACD indicator 1st gives the sell signal and then again it gives buy signal and again it gives sell signal and on this third sell signal if the stochastic also gives the bear cross then the leading cryptocurrency turns bearish and starts the bearish move. It can be observed form 24th October to 25th November 2019. Then from 23rd Jan to 13th March 2020.
This time again when the vervoort changed to green color then MACD 1st gave sell signal then buy signal and finally it has again given sell signal on 11th May and the stochastic also has given bear cross. But on 14th of May up to so far we can see that the MACD has turned weak bearish from strong bearish and the stochastic has also given bull cross. Now both indicators are giving weak bullish signals but it can be a bull trap because if we move back on 22nd Feb then it can be witnessed that after receiving the final sell signal from the MACD indicator and stochastic the MACD again turned weak bearish and we also received a stochastic bull cross on 23rd of Feb 2020. But after three candles the MACD again turned strong bearish without giving the buying signals and the stochastic again gave bear cross then we have witnessed a significant drop in the month of March 2020.
Movement of RSI and price action is not synchronized:
Now if we switch to the short-term hourly chart then it can be easily seen that the price action is moving sideways since 14th May up till now. But the RSI is bearish and moving down. If the price action moves up or sideways and the RSI continuously moves down then it is considered as if bearish signal among the traders community. Therefore there are chances of significant drop on short term at any time.
$10K a psychological resistance:
Now I would like to recall the strongest resistance block that starts from $9000 to $9500. This block has been working as a strong support and resistance since January 2018. The price action of the leading cryptocurrency recently has made the second attempt to breakout this resistance level. Even at the current candlestick the Bitcoin is struggling to breakout. But so for the priceline is not able to break out this block. After this resistance level we have the $10,000 psychological resistance level but in my point of view the resistance block of $9000 to $9500 is more important than the psychological resistance of $10K. Because if we see the price action then the Bitcoin has used this block as support and resistance levels more than $10,000 as per previous history. Therefore once the price action of BTC will be able to break out the $9500 resistance level then it can take no time to breakout the $10,000 resistance level. But in order to have a successful break out from $9500 resistance we need the closing above $9500 and after that the price action may rest the previous resistance as support and after successful retest the price action may attempt to breakout the 10K resistance.
Second attempt to breakout the channel resistance is likely to be failed:
As discussed in my previous article we have seen that the price action has almost formed the same kind of up channel that was formed back in December 2019 to February 2020. On 7th, 8th and 9th May we have witnessed recent attempts by the priceline of BTC to breakout resistance of the channel. And then we have seen a significant drop up to $8109. And this time price action did not hit the support of this channel because we had the 25 simple moving average support above the channel support that stopped the priceline to move more down. And we can also watch that this time the priceline is not able to reach at resistance of the channel and likely to move down soon. If we see the simple moving averages on this daily chart then their positions are very optimistic. Because the 25 simple moving average has formed the golden cross with all simple moving averages and the 50 simple moving average is moving upward to form the golden cross with 100 and 200 simple moving averages.
If the 50 SMA will continue this move and form the golden cross with 100 and 200 simple moving averages then it can produce a powerful bullish divergence that can lead the priceline to break out that resistance of the channel. Because the golden cross between 50 and 200 simple moving average is considered a strong buying signal among the traders community. However if the 50 simple moving average will be moved down from here then we can expect a short term bearish rally by the Bitcoin.
Big down channel on weekly chart:
Now let's switch to the weekly chart and here the priceline of Bitcoin has formed another very big down channel. And on current candlestick it has made third attempt to break out the channel resistance. But unfortunately sofar the price action is not able to break out. If the Bitcoin starts bearish move from here then first we can expect the priceline will retest the support of the channel that has been formed on the daily chart. After that we have the 25 simple moving every support on the weekly chart that can be tested as a support by the price action at $7800 and if this 25 SMA will be broken down then BTC may retest the 100 SMA that is at $7100. And in case the price action of leading cryptocurrency will break down the 100 simple moving average on this weekly chart then the priceline may reach the 200 simple moving average that is a strongest support ever in the history of the Bitcoin. At this time the 200 SMA is at $5700.
Bearish BAT on 4hr chart is pushing the priceline down:
Now I would like to take you to the 4 hour chart where the Bitcoin has formed a bearish BAT pattern. This pattern was started from from 7th May and has been completed on 14th May 2020. Since then we have witnessed that after entering the potential reversal zone of bearish BAT the priceline is moving down. It seems to be that bearish harmonic BAT is working and pushing the priceline down towards the previous support.
Conclusion:
On short term and midterm the signals are in favor of bears rather than bulls. Therefore it is possible that the bears will take over soon and drive the priceline to atleast the support of the channel and further downward move can lead the price action to retest the previous supports. However on the long term the Bitcoin is still strong bullish.
Note: This idea is education purpose only and not intended to be investment advice, please seek a duly licensed professional and do you own research before any investment.
