As we wrap up 2025, I keep coming back to the same pattern: the market can look โbrokenโ for monthsโฆ and still finish the year in a decent place. We saw double-digit drawdowns at one point, skepticism everywhere, then a recovery that made the earlier panic feel almost, forgotten.
My base case for 2026 is basically a remix of that. More chop. More red months. More people declaring the cycle is over (again). But still a bullish outcome by year-endโif one key condition holds: large-cap tech and AI-heavy names need to keep delivering earnings growth without a brutal P/E reset. That โno multiple compressionโ part matters more than most people want to admit.
Hereโs the interesting part: if the Fed is cutting and rates are trending down, itโs not just a mega-cap story. Lower rates are oxygen for the โother 490โ โ the broader stock market thatโs been living in the shadow of a handful of giants. Thatโs where breadth can improve: cyclicals, small/mid, and the boring-but-real economy names that donโt need an AI narrative to justify their existence.
Crypto fits into this same frame. In a cutting cycle, liquidity expectations shift, and risk appetite can return fast. But Iโm not assuming a clean โalts to the moonโ sequel. Dispersion is real. Bitcoin tends to be the cleanest macro sponge, while alts still have to earn their keep (usage, revenue, survivability).
What Iโm doing (process > predictions):
If 2026 really does โlook like this year,โ the edge wonโt be forecasting the next headline. Itโll be having a plan when the chart looks wrong.
Not financial adviceโjust my current lens. Where are you leaning for 2026: skepticism, cautious optimism, or full defensive mode?
I love taking photos of anything and then share them in my blog. However, I also want to share about my investing journey here in the Hive Blockchain and share my thoughts about crypto & finance.
