A recession is looking more and more likely for several reasons. They are cyclical, and the timing is about right for another one. Political winds often play a part in consumer confidence, which in turn plays a large part in the perceived strength or weakness of an economy. Those political winds around the world are not blowing in a way that produces confidence in the future well being of most consumers.
How will crypto perform in a global downturn? That is not an answer that can be made from an historical perspective as crypto hasn't been around long enough to show what sort of performance we can expect. But if you accept that the markets are made up of two groups - institutional investors who keep an eye on charts and indices and complex mathematical formulas; and individual investors who are trying to build wealth for a later stage in life - both groups may come to the same conclusion.
The prime directive for both groups is to put their money in a "safe haven". Traditionally this safe haven has been gold and real estate. In the last recession real estate proved to not be a particularly safe place to hold wealth. This time around I'm not seeing the price of gold rising particularly fast as it has in past impending recessions.
I have two tickers on my desktop. One for the price of Bitcoin, and one with the NYSE, Dow, NASDAQ and a few select stocks I follow. In the past months I've seen the stock market ticker bouncing around like a kid with a super ball. And yes, crypto has shed value, but it has not seemingly reacted to the highs and lows of the stock exchanges. It seems to be following it's own path and that path is, by and large, pretty stable when compared to traditional stocks.
I suspect that what we could see is crypto becoming the "safe haven" for wealth that is fleeing traditional stocks and bonds. All currency, all stocks, all investments of any sort have the value that the holders feel it has. It has no intrinsic worth. It's a perception of value.
If stocks and bonds and other investment instruments lose the confidence of investors, they won't leave the investment market, they will look for an investment instrument they feel will hold value. If the signs prove true and we do enter a recession two things could come to pass. It will probably be a global recession and cryptocurrency stands a good chance of becoming that investment instrument that holds the perception of value.