Though not a particularly profound statement:
Follow the money
has always stuck with me since the time I first heard it. In context, it's essentially pointing out that whatever heroic or just cause is being tacked onto any global event, really all one needs to do is follow the money to find the real incentives.
This has stood true pretty much entirely in the decades following my first hearing of it as a naive teen.
The kidnapping of Venezuela's dictator was no exception. Sure, the people may celebrate that he got his comeuppance, but it was openly admitted by Trump that it was about the oil, which USA would be ceasing and controlling henceforth.
It's a low quality, thick and sticky oil, something that needs special gear to process - gear which the USA already happens to have.
And, of course, Iran is no exception either.
In the exact same way, we celebrate or argue about removing a despotic regime, power vacuums, installing democracies, liberating the oppressed. This takes all the headlines.
But come on. Follow the money.
This is the little waterway, a bottleneck that runs through the area which Iran frequently threatens to shut down with landmines and all that. It has now been practically all but shut down for who knows how long.
Global oil prices have skyrocketed as a result.
Who stands to gain and lose from this? Let's see (I'm sure you can all guess).
China is Iran's best customer, buying up about 90% of all of Iran's oil. 50-60% of all China energy goes through the Hormuz strait.
China has some buffer supplies, but if this goes prolonged for more than a couple of months, Chinas factories will need shutting down and energy prices will skyrocket unless they can rapidly flip to Russian supplies - unlikely given the complexity and time its taking to build those pipelines.
China can either get involved and risk escalating, or they can just keep quiet and take the hit. It remains to be seen.
They all rely on this energy supply somewhat more than China and have less of a buffer or a way out. Probably not significantly worse off than China, but a fair amount worse. Japan is probably hit the hardest being an Island with almost no resources of any kind.
Yeah, quite a bit of their energy including LNG comes from this area. Having already cut off Russian supplies out of spite, they don't really have many other sources to turn to.
Probably going to fare better than the EU, as we are decently diversified, getting the majority of energy from USA and Norway, with a bit of LNG from Qatar. That being said, we won't be immune to the global oil price surge.
Just what we need; more price hikes.
Well, you might notice the obvious absentees from the above list.
Well, well, well. What a happy coincidence!
Obviously. Their entire existence is oil. This probably means bad news for Ukraine, incidentally.
Makes one suspicious of those Finns, quietly getting along amongst themselves up there.
Secretly becoming richer, richer, RICHER THAN EVER!!! uhh, ahem, I mean... we just like to stare at the northern lights, leave us out of it.
Riiiiiight.
More of the OPEC cartel would also stand to benefit of course, but being proximally so close to Iran, they're all getting bombed as we speak which is hard to put down as a 'win'. Perhaps more glaringly problematic would be the fact that all their sales are exported through the Hormuz strait, too.
Ultimately, the USA didn't start this off for any act of righteous Saviour of the Persian people. They didn't do it to end a high risk nuclear power, or to help out their Israel buddies who deserve a homeland blah blah.
They did it because they can become immensely wealthy at the expense of basically everyone else; as has always been the case since they destroyed the British Empire with the same behaviour.
Of course, it also shafts China which is a secondarily big win for the USA.
Follow the money.
