So far, the markets have been right about fed hikes all year, including the exact amount.
They now anticipate a .5 hike in September, then at least one more .25 hike later in the year.
Historically, the fed just follows the 2 year rate, which makes sense since they are a communist institution that doesn't know where interest rates should be - they can't possibly know, it's inherent in the socialist calculation problem (hence why the soviet union copied prices from the Sears catalogue).
The risk going forward is that they raise the fed funds rate above the 2 year rate, which would create inversion, which always leads to recession.
