20/08/2018/09:40CET
Bitcoin is stable but is this a good or bad sign? and what about alts?
I can hear the cheering in the background from alt hodlers that the bear is back in the cave. Holders of coins like VeChain and Ontology are smiling again and others are waiting their turn, but is hope and wait a good strategy in this market?
By a wide margin, most of alt coin traders who waded into the markets during the runup of Jan 18' are still sitting on deep losses. The alts will have to rebound hard and high to get back to breakeven for many hodlers.
I was one of them till very recently when the last flush triggered me to act.
As a trader I am trying to learn and in this process I feel I have made leaps and bounds. Almost all advice given by lead traders - those that have had their successes noticed - refer to losses. Take a look at these quotes and you will get a good feeling for what I mean...
I think we need to have more of a shake out of alts (which also supports the notion of lower btc before a reversal). This shakeout could happen from these lows as well but some shit coins will survive this bottom, and since we are down here, may as well clean the basement out as well I say.
I have started a new reanalysis of alts from which I want to have a new short list of coins that are investable.
In this analysis I want to look not just at the dreams and how bright they are, but also a critical look at their progress to delivering and what deals they have made to bring about adoption.
Over the last months I have started to question more and more my eagerness and willingness to believe that a new age of finance, insurance, logistics etc is right around the corner with all these exciting new altcoin projects. My questioning revolves around the timelines and abilities of these projects to disrupt their chosen markets. It is too easy for us bleeding edge technologists to lose sight of how slowly the rest of the crowd adopts these new innovations. This adds major bias to investment and trading decisions.
Take a promising project that I have strong faith in: Substratum. I will not go into its fundamentals of this project, but for my point I want to say that I think adoption, to the point where investment in the token pays off, is far further in the future than I would have liked to admit.
And the further out into the future this adoption milestone lies, the more risk exists that the projects timing is simply not correctly aligned with the market.
"Right idea, right execution, right team, wrong timing:
still = failed project."
still = failed project."
This kind of trading or investment mistake has another disadvantage: tying up your capital in a losing investment.
While we wait for a promising project to make a breakthrough in the market, that capital is occupied and not available for some other promising project that may appear.
“Letting losses run is the most serious mistake
made by most investors.”
– William O’Neil
made by most investors.”
– William O’Neil
Now lets get back to the business at hand.
BTCUSD 1d
We trade at 6446 usd at press time and trade in a band between 6600 and 6250. There seems to be no decisive direction over the last few days. You can almost see a little wedge formation here. The net info this price action gives me when I consider my overall analysis is sadly not positive.
Our 21dema indicator still acts as resistance at 6650 usd, and 6740 usd is also a line of rs that #btc will have to break right afterwards.
My bearish bias will remains unless/until we can break these 2 resistance points with decisive power and volume.
Speaking of volumes, they are not encouraging bullishness at the moment. Though this has a habit of being volatile.
A real bull breakout has to be accompanied by a clear volume breakout as well.
I want to share another view of btc that I track in the background...
This is a monthly chart of btc. We have a long term wedge that is will be coming to a head shortly.
Volumes here seem to have bottomed out and we can see quite well our 6k market structure level.
The blue line indicator is our 21 month exponential moving average. The same as the 21dema but it is a 21mema (hehehee - mema, sounds silly now I say it out aloud)
It hangs at 5997 usd as of press time. Coincidently right on our 6k market structure line.
All hangs on if this level holds. But as you may know from my previous posts, I think with this last dip we had below 6k really dented our chances for a reversal without testing lower lows. I put the reversal from this price now at below even.
So we are not out of the woods yet guys!