Greetings, fellow sentient beings!
Narratives shape society and economical conditions. But observations on society and real economical conditions also shape some narratives in their own turn and I would like to mention some plausible fictional economies as points of reference.
Last time I spoke of various bubbleous aspects of society's perception of reality. Today, I want to speculate on possible aftermaths of some of those bubbles bursting as most of them kind of threaten to do so.
I was recently involved in a discussion leading to the 'does life imitate art or does art imitate life' casus. And I got thinking about some great minds who created brilliant literary versions of our future, most of them based on really plausible economic conditions.
I would say, art draws inspiration from life and life's history but it creates alternative history or future as a warning of what may yet come to pass. Aye, some fiction warns and some fiction outlines bright visions of the future but somehow, when thinking about our bubble problem, I keep thinking about the warnings mostly.
So, I am going to share a handful of scenarios to pick from...I mean...for the purpose of discussion and taking morals.
Just go and research what pushed people into becoming savages keeping the tiniest fraction of a civilization's legacy around. Bullets and Gasoline. Some rust. A regional crisis that spread globally due to chain overreactions and increasing enmity instead of the will for cooperation. Then — Jungle Law but in the desert. Who killed the world?
That one is probably the most frightening and we saw some signs of such overreaction as people rushed to stock on toilet paper. But that's only funny while supplies last ;)
If madness hits, no capital investments are safe nor adequate.
Semi-related: I recently saw a vlog about a large part of the world's commercial fleet being scrapped for the iron. They said it went up about 300 % this year. Comparable to BTC, no? Does it mean less trade and more gearing up is to come?
Back to that brilliant vision brought to our attention mostly thanks to William Gibson and works of his such as Neuromancer or Johnny Mnemonic.
Can you see the Golden Gate Bridge turning into slums? Can you see the world being ruled by corporations and cartels while others try to make a living by hacking (at) the system? It seems a the road we're still on.
Is there a spoon?
Since we're talking about bubbles, and since imagination and fiction also can trap our minds some such, be prepared there is. Be prepared Kansas does not go bye-bye. I think you are. That's what Hodling is about, no?
This one I don't expect many to know about. It's a novel by Dan Simmons and it works with names from our modern time. It's actually about the period shortly before 2030 but it was written in, mind you, 2011. And it's about major changes due to wrong policy.
Like the fictional Obama Social Measures, something like that UBI people began petitioning for, which eventually leads to the collapse of the USA economy due to the situation reaching the ratio of 1 person working to support 72 persons (not working). The only US export is...soldiers. Few people care since the Flashback drug that allows people to relive glorious memories holds the population addicted and passive.
People addicted to pleasure and neglecting responsibility, future, even present.
And with the US no longer a factor (i.e. no longer a military presence factor, mostly)...
Israel nuked out of the picture by close-by enemies.
China torn apart in civil war and...importing US soldiers.
Jihadist states on the rise and their people all over the globe.
Meanwhile
Putin has replaced Che Guevara in terms of popular T-shirt presence...Russia in relatively good condition along with high-tech corporate Japan. That second part, quite like in Gibson's Cyber Punk here, by the way.
The interdependence that ruins both Chinese and US economies in the book is kind of no more, so that all seems a bit off.
But the slide to the left seems quite plausible. And we who've been there, I mean on the inside of Communism, are quite wary of that. Not being able to make your own fortune, not being able to speak freely and choose how and where to live...that sucks.
Of course, medieval vassals probably had it worse.
The Aftermath of Centralization. Probably the diner of an abandoned touristic camp in the mountains of Bulgaria. Property of the state since when everything was property of the state. I shot it while being the client of a private guesthouse in the area.
Thanks to seeing our blockchain society at work, I now believe organized decentralization is the optimal way out of the current social crisis. Central authorities are just not interested enough and not potent enough to deal with real problems. We have lots of show that tries to convince us otherwise, but next to nothing as real positive results. Still amazed how this ridiculous show keeps working as much as it does.
Corporations have stronger hands and more sound foundations than governments since there is that thing called...consistency...in their policies.
Not. In. Your. Favor.
No souls, remember?
Anyway, my hope lies in decentralized social networking, really. But not a happy little bubble of us. A global mass involved in this. Honest info and mutual interests are priceless.
I think next time I'll go into some reminiscence about the times when I was a baby or not even born and the state made the boundaries of the Communist bubble. Based on stories heard, of course.
Take care!
Yours,
Manol
