The above image was made with stable diffusion using the prompt 'a person afraid of a conspiracy computer colorful.'
The moon landing probably wasn't faked. Global leaders probably aren't reptilian extraterrestrials in disguise. The Earth probably isn't flat. I've heard people make claims to the contrary and I think they're mistaken. At the same time, some of what I believe is admittedly controversial. And my job for many years has been to document real conspiracies as they come to light.
The main thing that separates a true conspiracy from a false one is evidence. Yet the powers that be tend to presume falsehood and exert pressure on the information space to make it conform to this expectation. The playbook for this was outlined in the 2008 paper Conspiracy Theories by Cass R. Sunstein and Adrian Vermeule. Sunstein has serious policy influence, championing both cognitive infiltration and 'the nudge.' Here's some of what the paper says about conspiracy theories:
"Such theories typically spread as a result of identifiable cognitive blunders, operating in conjunction with informational and reputational influences. A distinctive feature of conspiracy theories is their self-sealing quality. Conspiracy theorists are not likely to be persuaded by an attempt to dispel their theories; they may even characterize that very attempt as further proof of the conspiracy. Because those who hold conspiracy theories typically suffer from a “crippled epistemology,” in accordance with which it is rational to hold such theories, the best response consists in cognitive infiltration of extremist groups."
This paper's stated focus was false conspiracies and how to fight them. It paid special attention to 9/11 conspiracy theories, considering all of these false. The Saudi government was later found to have supported the plot, which made evident that there had in fact been a conspiracy to conceal official Saudi involvement in the terrorist attack. David Coady at the University of Tasmania wrote a rebuttal to the paper that includes:
"There are many true, justified, and/or beneficial conspiracy theories. This is because people often conspire, we often have good reason to believe that people are conspiring, and there is often a significant public benefit in exposing their conspiracies. I compare conspiracy theories to scientific theories, arguing that just as most of us regard bad scientific theories (i.e. false, unjustified and harmful ones) as an acceptable price to pay for good scientific theories, we should regard bad conspiracy theories as an acceptable price to pay for good conspiracy theories."
If I told you that dolphins armed with dart guns escaped a military facility to roam the oceans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, you might think I was kidding, but that actually happened. The world is big and it's weird. For that reason alone, I try not to dismiss even strange claims too easily.
Where it gets dicey is when a conspiracy theory begins interfering with a person's life. A good friend became convinced that he was a government programmed assassin and then he became a street person who didn't even recognize me when I said hello. A friend of a friend ruined all of his relationships in part because he couldn't stop talking about Flat Earth. Another friend once told me he was being chased around the city by a gang of extremely fashionable Europeans, which he found upsetting.
Beyond these extremes, even a small glimpse into the control regime's corruption can give rise to paranoia and dark imaginings. I've met many people who blame the state of the world or their lot in life on evil conspirators. But I've met many more who are earnestly looking for the truth, even when that truth is uncomfortable. And the general truth that's emerged in recent years is very uncomfortable indeed. As more and more covid lies are uncovered, more and more people are discovering that they were misled by their leaders. They're starting to question the narrative.
This is hard in a psychological sense. Entertaining prohibited stories about reality involves breaking societal rules, and rule breaking has a cognitive cost. Noncomformity can also be hard socially, leading to intractable arguments and other drama. We can question the narrative, but it doesn't like being challenged.
It also seems worth mentioning that our baseline is mass surveillance, propaganda, and censorship. Every one of us is being watched by our devices. Our realities are manipulated at every turn by ads and compromised news sources and elected officials. These facts alone naturally call the official story into question. Where exactly are we being steered?
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