About a month ago I wrote an article on how Bitcoin could reach a value of up to $800.000 in the event it displaces gold and foreign reserves as the dominant Store of Value (SoV). Since then, a lot has changed, especially in the price of Bitcoin. Let's take a look again with today's numbers!

In my original post I provided arguments for how Bitcoin could potentially reach a value of 260.000 to 800.000 USD. At the time, the value of a Bitcoin was about $15.000. Let's take a look again at the formula.

To calculate the break-even probability (p) of BTC becoming the dominant store of value:

Current BTC price = p * future BTC price
$7.000 = p * $260.000
$7.000 = p * $800.000

We end up with a break-even value of p between roughly 0.9 and 2.7%. This means that if you think the probability of Bitcoin becoming the dominant store of value is greater than 2.7%, you should definitely invest in Bitcoin. If you think it's somewhere between 0.9 and 2.7%, you should maybe invest and if you think this probability is lower than 0.9% you should not invest any money in BTC.

Example: if we take a probability of 10%, then the value of Bitcoin as a dominant store of value is between 26.000 USD and 80.000 USD, representing a significant upside to the current market price of $7.000.