The Latin American Report # 65

Hello, hivers. Today we comment on an extensive report about the strengthening of corn distribution logistics from ports located in northern Brazil, which has led to the country being projected to overtake the United States as the world's leading exporter this year. In addition, we review some narratives related to the connection between certain nations in Latin America and the BRICS group, and finish with our regional quick roundup to discuss events in Guatemala —where the Attorney General's Office continues to put pressure on the winning party in the presidential elections—, Ecuador, and El Salvador. So, let me ride on the reporting task now.

Brazil

Reaping the fruits of a patient effort to strengthen its maritime transportation infrastructure through private terminals located in the north, the South American giant is already poised to displace the United States as the top exporter of corn, a critical commodity. It is interesting right now to connect this potential to a 2013 legislation that Dilma Rousseff promoted while serving as president —she succeeded Lula da Silva in 2011, in a handover within the same ranks of the Workers' Party—, understanding that it was critical to open the management of the ports to private investment and competition to reverse the state of affairs on that front then (and it is even more interesting to see how a center government somewhat inclined to the left was the standard bearer precisely of privatizing a key sector).

Now, the marketers of the critical grain, which is also aiming for a record harvest, benefit from the operation of new private terminals built by themselves and also shipping companies in recent years, taking advantage of the waterways of the mighty Amazon River, which already at least equal the volumes of other more established facilities in the south. Total investments in port infrastructure have reached $8 billion, and thanks to this dynamic, although logistical challenges persist, the country can export some 50 million metric tons this year. Although commercially the strategy has been a success, there are criticisms and demands from indigenous communities —bathed by the Amazon— for the conversion of their natural environment into industrial waterways, and because the spillover effect has not been shown with the expected forcefulness.

Argentina at home?

The BRICS group finally extended an invitation to Argentina to join —an explicit objective of Lula da Silva, who yesterday also offered an alternative to boost his country's exports to his partner—, but given the electoral uncertainty there, the concretion of this decision, which countries such as Venezuela or Bolivia are still waiting for in their favor, is a coin toss. President Alberto Fernandez, who is almost leaving, said that the possibility of accessing the market that the group represents opens a "new scenario" for his country, that right now shows its foreign currency reserves in the red and whose population is dealing with a suffocating three-digit inflation. However, both the winning candidate in the primaries, Javier Milei, and the candidate of the political party of former President Mauricio Macri stated that if they came to power they would withdraw from the bloc. The latter referred in particular to a sort of ethical conflict related to the presence of Russia in the bloc —due to the war in Ukraine—, and also alluded to the complicated relationship with Iran due to some events that took place in the first five years of the 90s. Milei also rejected the relationship with BRICS, "because [he] is not going to push for a deal with communists" [emphasis mine, we have already talked about this].

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Venezuela and Bolivia continue to advocate for entry

Meanwhile, Nicolás Maduro and Bolivia's Luis Arce demanded the same invitation received by Buenos Aires. The Venezuelan, for example, highlighted the fact that the tentative entry of his country together with other OPEC members that also aspire to join the block "will guarantee the management of 83% of the world's proven oil reserves", a dynamic of strategic control that is not far off in the gas sector, where they could accumulate the management of 72% of the global reserves. The Caracas representative also referred to his country's experience in circumventing sanctions —in a dart at Washington— and repeated the usual call of the countries under the BRICS umbrella to create a new financial architecture. For his part, Arce, who met the day before with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, appealed directly to him to emphasize his nation's interest in joining the forum. Incidentally, they discussed basic foreign policy issues, in a show of commitment expected from La Paz, which, for example, has preferred Russia and China as strategic partners to advance the strategic lithium industry.

Your regional quick roundup

• In Guatemala, as I had predicted in a previous report, the Attorney General's Office continues to mercilessly pressure the winning party in the presidential elections, and has requested that it be formally disregarded in Congress, where it is not even a relevant force, having only five deputies. On the other hand, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, ascribed to the Organization of American States, granted precautionary measures in favor of the president-elect Bernardo Arévalo and his running mate Kevin Herrera due to the possible attempt against their lives that could be plotted even by state actors. Although the government of the unpopular outgoing president accepted the decision, it also fallaciously stated that "there is no political persecution" in the country. A clever signal, no doubt.
  

• In Ecuador, where a state of exception is in force due to the acute insecurity crisis —although in the last few days, fortunately, I have not found reports of violent deaths in the international press—, the authorities found three tons of cocaine in a building as part of an operation to follow a van that parked in front of it after trying to evade them. On Wednesday, close to 2 tons —also of cocaine— were seized in the port of the violent city of Guayaquil, which would have been destined for a Spanish port.
  

• Finally, in El Salvador, a former minister was "condemned" to return a little more than 460,000 dollars that he fraudulently hoarded, according to the Public Prosecutor's Office. But what most jumped out at me when I read the official communication about the civil "conviction" is that the corrupt citizen is disqualified from holding public office for only ten years! Then he can go back to defraud the Salvadoran citizenry. What do you think? In any case, David Munguia, which is the name of the former minister of justice and security, has an 18-year sentence —this time in a criminal case— for arranging a truce with criminal gangs during the government of Mauricio Funes, to reduce homicides in exchange for better prison conditions for their members.
  

This is all for our sixty-fifth report. I have referenced the sources dynamically in the text, and remember you can learn how and where to follow the LATAM trail news by reading my work here. Have a nice day.