Cryptogram is my personal journal of thoughts about cryptocurrencies and related topics. I am posting them on Steemit as a means of keeping a record of them. At the bottom of each post is brief summary of the general layout of this, and future posts. Thanks for reading. (Also to find other posts, search "cryptogram")
Last night around midnight CST in the US, I received news that South Korea had raided 2 crypto currency exchanges and were issuing a blanket ban for all crypto exchange. I later learned that this was more or less FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt,) in the form of exaggerated and overblown coverage of an expected event. In brief, S. Korea has had the legislation that people called a "ban" in the works since December, and the exchanges they raided, were breaking some of the rules that their gov't laid out for exchanges. In short, Korea is regulating exchanges more carefully now, the end.
In the process of piecing all of this together via reddit, twitter, and news sites, I was speculating on the possible effects this would have on the market. Here are the scenarios I have come up with.
If the ban was true, this could have been a catalyst for the epic crash that we all know is inevitable in the coming months. Not an end or anything, but a 60 %- 70% drop in total market value. I think that if this were real, this would be the kind of FUD which would cause many to panic sell and abandon the market until better days.
The second possibility I considered is that if the exchange shutdown was false, which it was, than this could actually act as a catalyst for purchase. Here is a small outline of the thought process I would attribute to many new investors:
So in summary, due to relief people feel from dodging a crypto killing bullet, people will become more optimistic and start putting more money into the system. So with that, I think this event will be a catalyst for the rise or demise of btc in the short term. This is further bolstered by the technical analysis of a friend, pointing out that bitcoin is coming to the end of a huge triangle correction, and technically is poised to take off.
###Below is the chart:
Notice that bitcoin is bouncing between 13k and 20k with peaks digressing from 20k, 18k, 17k and 15k in between and a strong resistance at 13k on the bottom.
I also am currently thinking that all coins on coinbase may see growth during a consolidation of money before any major growth. Currently, btc, bch, eth, and ltc. However, i believe the 2 coins that will carry the most value are BTC and ETH, and BTC will outweigh ETH heavily. Especially, if lightning network nodes begin to alleviate congestion.
Finally today i have consolidated many positions back to btc, including REQ, LINK, and RDN. I still like these project and intend to buy them back, but probably not until btc either has a run or a noticeable fizzle.
I am still holding
Blockmason Credit Protocol Token (BCPT) https://blockmason.io/creditprotocol/
Particl (PART) https://particl.io/
Zclassic (ZCL) in prep for the BTCP fork http://zclassic.org/ ; https://btcprivate.org/
DASH: https://www.dash.org/
Melon: https://melonport.com/
SALT: https://www.saltlending.com/
CIVIC: https://www.civic.com/
Currently in the crypto space it can be difficult to remember what you have discussed or been thinking from one week to the next. The rapid development of, and many changes in the space keep everyone on their toes. Now that I have been financially involved in the space for roughly a year, I realize that I would love to have my thoughts from 2017 written down somewhere. I believe having this information will help me stay focused, avoid repeating past mistakes, and hopefully help some other people, (anyone who decides to read this,) from making those same mistakes.
