Time for a little market speculating! Of course, I know nothing, but just wanted to share some opinions on current Tides of Fate card prices after the set's balance lock.
Arrandion stands out as the most expensive craftable leggy by far. I'm currently eyeing Arrandion, Shredder, and Salvator for purchase. Maybe Digby for lols if he gets dirt cheap. The thing about these cards is they should continue to fall in price (all else equal) as people farm their materials in Sealed mode. On the other hand, the supply for all these leggies are incredibly low. If the set were to be retired tomorrow, these cards would moon in price as some of the rarest leggies from any major set. As point of comparison, the next-rarest full set leggies are Trial and they have ~2500 each! If this set stays live for a year like Mortal Judgement, these craftable leggies are going to be worth peanuts until/unless the player base grows significantly.
Arrandion's price took a hit due to the Zaskia change - so no more cheating the surge early. However, it remains a better win-con than Avator of Magic, so is the new card for control magic. Also, the deck is a lot easier to pilot than AoM. No forseeing or card counting. Lots of burn spells.
Shredder is an objectively great card - even after the nerf. I just remember buying Dagan for $20 and watching it get printed into the ground. Once burned twice shy and all that. Importantly, Shredder works as a top end on an aggressive deck, a solid creature for midrange, or even as a control tool.
Salvator is a little less flexible, and I think his price reflects that. You don't run him in aggro war. He's also just objectively a slower card than either Arrandion or Shredder. In a lot of matchups discarding random spells isn't all that helpful. At 7 you've already either lost to aggro or exhausted them of cards and are going to win. Some decks will barely have any spells in them. etc. Still a good card.
In other words, leggies you can't craft. In my humble opinion, these cards' supply is basically fixed here. The leggy rates from packs was halved and halved again. This makes buying packs not worth it (at these card prices anyway) and it means that WR/sealed packs aren't going to be dropping many at all. In other words, I don't see card prices going down from here unless there is a mass exodus from the game.
Francesca has remained remarkably pricey after the Atlantean nerfs. The entire archetype took a beating, and the top atlant deck right now isn't even running Replicator Alpha anymore. How far the mighty have fallen! Still, for an aggro deck, Francesca provides the insane ability to do 15 damage to face. There are some hoops to jump through, yes, but I don't think any other aggro deck has a finisher like that. A few weeks ago, though, Atlant Magic was dominating the meta. Now not so much. I don't expect Francesca to fall much given her limited supply and unique mechanic, but I don't plan to pay $70 for a card that makes a deck so-so. I have plenty of dirt-cheap decks that are already so-so! 馃槅
What can I say about Blade of the Creator? It completely backfired on the GU team. Most of the light creatures they printed were dumpstered immediately and instead hostage light was born using cards from previous sets. If you want to speculate on a card just to turn a profit, this is probably a good bet. It's required for the archetype and shows up in your hand every mulligan. Just don't be the horrible person playing it on ladder. Please.
Mayday! Very happy with my Mayday pickup at $20. It's a unique playstyle that most (including me) aren't all that great at playing. The meta has also adjusted to it as people are more used to playing against it. Still, for the masters, it's a winning deck. Here is Xikoperiko:
A unique playstyle with >60% win rate in mythic is always going to have people wanting to try it out or just collect the card.
Another card I'm glad I bought early. He caught some buffs (as well as his supporting cards) which made Refresh Nature a solid archetype. Manasurge 8 keeps him from being overpowered and requires supporting cards if you want to drop him on 7.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I don't see the price falling from here.
What a roller coaster this guy was! Finally working as originally intended. I actually see this card as the one with the most potential. Each new set will produce new leggies. Cards like Jason actually get worse over time due to this. The draw pool gets diluted due to the nature of legendary cards. Take Francesca for example. She's a great card, but you don't want her from Jason.
Azaiah is the exact opposite. Each new set increases the options for your highlander leggy deck and makes Azaiah more viable. If I was looking to make a long-term speculative play (and maybe I am), I think this might be the card.
A decent card. Even better when you don't run him in your deck but delve him from a shard! I haven't played much dragon war, but the best decks I see from that archetype don't run him:
So in my mind it's a good card for the game to have. Maybe not the best speculative play. He does, however, offer a MUCH cheaper win con than Thaerial! If you swap Gerold's Tdog for Alborax and his 2x Demos for Ember Onis, you've got a really solid budget dragon control list.
This is of course just my opinions and wild speculations. I didn't lose my shirt on this set! I'm actually deeply in the green, which is a nice change of pace. 馃槅 The main thing I'm mulling over now is when to pull the trigger on the craftable leggies and whether or not to pick up 1x Azaiah for a long-term hold. When someone finds a highlander deck that works, it'll be too late! On the other hand, that could be years away for all I know. Maybe better to just keep current on the streaming scene and pick it up at the first sign of life.
