Red days
The recent crash was anticipated by most people, although I did not expect such a quick rebound to 15K... then back down to 12.000 and now again back to 15.000 and almost reaching 16.000. I actually expected Bitcoin to drop further down after it was rejected from the 15.000 range (my previous assumption was that it will stagnate somewhere around 8.000-10.000).
In fact I think all this happened too quickly, the drop down to almost 10.000 was most likely because multiple people panic sold and it triggered stop-loss orders, then when the rise happened people bought because of FOMO or BUY-THE-DIP-QUICKLY. I guess it is sometimes hard to keep track of a market that is open 24/7, so basically everything is happening 3 times sooner than in other makets. But still I would not be surprised if Bitcoin tops out again anywhere from 16.000-20.000 and starts falling back.
In any case I am still bearish on Bitcoin (Core/Legacy) and here is why:
Replace by fee
Bitcoin Core developers are planning to make Replace-by-fee transactions the default method of payment. I don't really think this is acceptable, and replace-by-fee is questionable anyway. Leaving it as an opt-in method to quicken transactions is fine for me but if it is the de facto way of transacting, the end result will be a fee war between people that want to get their transaction confirmed ASAP. This will only lead to fees further increasing, but I mean, that's the plan anyway right?
Some people might not understand what is my problem with the transaction fees. Some people might even think that paying 10-30 or even up to 100$ of fees is entirely fine. And view transactions with 1-5$ of fees as SPAM.
Now then... Consider that Bitcoin is supposed to be a global payment network. So even people that are living in Africa, Venezuela, [insert poor country here], should be able to use the system without problems. And while some Americans and other Westerners might view those 1-20$ fees small. I think they are outrageous. And that 1-20$ might be a daily wage for some people. For me personally. I might get 20$ per day at an average workplace as I am living in Eastern Europe.
And I don't think Lightning will solve any of these as you need to open and close channels with the same on-chain transaction fees anyway. Next to the other potential vulnerabilities. And I am not even going to mention that it is still an unfinished product that no one knows when it will be ready.
Eroding market share
The increasing fees, less and less trust, and the rise of altcoins all lead to the following: Bitcoin's market share eroding over time.
This began around March when the block's became full and only worsened since then. And while people attribute the growth of the whole cryptocurrency market to Bitcoin gaining popularity... I think the real reason why the cryptocurrency sphere had this 'Big Boom' this year is....
Wait for it...
Ethereum
and the ICO market.
Ethereum enabled hundreds of projects to launch in a short amount of time. And many of those coins or tokens that launched on the platform increased hundreds or thousands percents in this year. All eating away Bitcoin's market share.
The spike in recent market share gain in the past month could be attributed to the media giving a lot of attention to Bitcoin and the fact that Bitcoin is the first entry point to newcomers, and that most exchanges only have BTC/XYZ trading pairs is the most contributing factor to the fact that Bitcoin is still alive. Because...
Merchants are dropping Bitcoin
Merchants are dropping Bitcoin and switching over to altcoins. Whether it is Bitcoin Cash or Litecoin it does not matter. First Steam dropped it. Recently Bitpay raised the limit to 100$ and then followed up with the following statement:
We are also working quickly to add support for a Bitcoin Cash (BCH) payment option on all BitPay invoices. Bitcoin Cash is a modified fork of Bitcoin which will allow purchasers to send payments with significantly lower bitcoin miner fees. Bitcoin Cash payments will allow us to re-enable payments as small as $1 or smaller.
And more and more merchants are dropping Bitcoin in favour of other coins.
Dream market
In case you are not familiar with the Dream market. It is a darknet website where users can sell and/or purchase illegal stuff from drugs to unreleased movies and so on.
While some of you will be like...
The fact is... People on the darknetmarkets were one of the first people to use Bitcoin as a currency. The fact that they are stepping away from it in favor or Bitcoin Cash, Monero and other privacy coins says a lot about the current situation of Bitcoin.
Whether you think drugs are okay or not, whether you use them or not. Those people made Bitcoin work and they contributed to what Bitcoin is today.
As of now, Dream market already implemented Bitcoin Cash support, and with services like CashShuffle being available (something that is not economically feasible anymore on the main Bitcoin chain). It looks like things are not looking very well for Bitcoin.
So what is next?
The horribly slow death of Bitcoin by the hands of altcoins* other cryptocurrencies.
The final nail in Bitcoin's coffin will be when exchanges introduce new ETH/XYZ and new BCH/XYZ pairs on their platforms. Which you can already see hapenning.
For those that feel uncomfortable with the current situation, hate Bitcoin Cash for what it is, or vested too much in Bitcoin here are a few helpful links:
https://tinybuddha.com/blog/6-life-lessons-on-embracing-change-and-impermanence/
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=46268
*I think we need to step away from calling cryptocurrencies altcoins considering the fact they are much more now than just alternatives to Bitcoin.