Last year it was easy for me to predict where bitcoin was going. It was obvious to me that bitcoin was going to reach the high of the previous bubble, break out and form a new run towards what I thought was simply going to be another bubble.
Generally this is exactly what happened and many will tell us that we are in a bubble right now. And there are many indicator that point to this. The conclusion would be that we will go parabolic and then likely crash and go into a bear market for a while before climbing again.
However this bubble is weird in many ways. For once why has it been so slow. And what I mean with that is why have we not gone parabolic yet?
Every other bitcoin bubble has been much faster and concluded within months. This bubble has been going on since summer of 2015.
The interesting part however is that if we look at the log chart as well as fundamental metric we are just getting started. There price is far away from going vertical.
All that said I think it is totally possible that we are currently in a bitcoin bubble. If so I would expect this one to go towards 100-150k as it will simply take that much price action for the price to do a parabolic rise. The thing is this could happen within the next three months.
What if these bubbles we had until 2013 were just foreplay and now we are experiencing the S-Curve at work. Most key technologies grow in S-curves. Check out this article for details: https://medium.com/@mcasey0827/speculative-bitcoin-adoption-price-theory-2eed48ecf7da
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies could be going into the fast growth part of the S-curve. I have layed a curve over the existing price and added another one that may predict how the S-curve could look like in purple.
I have added the average growth line in green to the chart. This line interestingly predicts bitcoin to reach 1M in roughly 3 years. The purple curve would accelerate even faster.
Overall I am assuming that bitcoin will trade anywhere between $1 to $20 million in todays dollars as my guess.
As an examples if we assume that there is about 200T in global money and 15M bitcoins in circulation (assuming 4-5m are lost) a fair price of bitcoin would be 13M.
Hence the end of the purple curve end just below 13M. If we wanted to be a bit more conservative one could have the curve end lower and draw it out a bit longer.
But maybe there is a little less money or maybe bitcoin will only capture a small part of it. What if there is closer to 600T in global asset etc. What if we only had 70T in global money?
Below is the S-curve assuming
To me this looks a bit less realistic, given how the price action has moved previously
So maybe what really has changed after 2013 is that we are now getting enough adoption to really start going into the growth phase of the S-Curve.
This I think would lead to absolutely bull case for bitcoin. It would make us see million dollar bitcoins when babies born today are starting to walk. In 2-3 years.
John McAffee predicts that bitcoin will reach 1M in about 3 years. He talks about a model he has.
What if he is right.
Exponential growth is crazy and always underestimated by humans. While this is the utter most bull case I think it is important not to discard it and instead accept it as one of the possible outcomes.
