There seems to be heated discussion going on for weeks now about whether the Splinterlands DAO should try to secure a Binance listing as fast as possible. There certainly are valid points to be made on both sides of the discussion. Personally, though, I really don't think that it's the right time to work towards a Binance listing and in this article, I want to explain why!
So first of all, what would be the immediate advantage of getting listed on Binance? Well obviously, it would help to raise awareness for the SPS token and thus the whole Splinterlands ecosystem. Generally speaking, every token that gets listed on Binance will see a huge surge in volume traded and, at least initially, a major spike in token price. The question then is, how lasting is this spike going to be? That certainly depends on a lot of different factors, but it's safe to say that a lot of these tokens will just pump once and then dump very, very hard afterwards. Let's take a look at the TLM (Alien Worlds native token) price chart for example:
TLM was listed on Binance in late April of 2021 and as you can see, it went above $0.7 during that time, only to dump really hard right after that. Then, even during the height of the alt-coin bull run and at the peak of the Play2Earn rally, it didn't manage to even get close to that value again, only making it to about $0.5. Let's compare this to what SPS did so far:
As you can see, we had our major spike exactly at the height of the bull and then declined from there just as much as Alien Worlds did. The difference is, we didn't need a Binance listing to achieve this and yet, our curses look pretty much the same. So while Binance certainly can help you heavily pump a token, it's also almost a given that it will dump it again afterwards. So while pump&dump schemes are fun to make (or loose) a quick buck, they really aren't what we should be looking for with Splinterlands.
So the true value, in my opinion, really comes from getting a lot more eyes to the project. A short lived pump in token value is cool and all, but it's not going to help us long term. But when we draw attention from the broader crypto world towards our project, we really should make sure that it's in the best possible condition to do so. Just as there's no second chance for a first impression, you can only get listed on Binance once. And in my very personal opinion, we are in no place to present ourselves to a broader audience just yet.
Don't get me wrong here - I love Splinterlands, I'm playing it every single day since early 2020. But getting into the game as a new user is a nightmare. There are dozens of different mechanics and resources you need to manage and understand to really get things going. The rental market, SPS staking for rewards, spending the Credits you get with the Spellbook, and so on. New users are completely overwhelmed.
There's a short tutorial in the beginning, but it won't teach players much and once they've advanced into Bronze III they will just keep loosing again and again without any idea of what's even going on. Back when I started the game it took me a good 2 weeks until I really got a hang of everything. And back then, things weren't even half as complicated as they are today.
So in my opinion, we need to improve the new player experience by a lot before we even think about working towards a listing on Binance. We need to make sure to explain all the relevant parts of the game, our economy, and everything in between. Luckily, the new player experience finally is among the top priorities the team wants to work on next:
Land 1.5 and Rebellion are obviously what's been worked on right now and Yabapmatt repeatedly said, that he wants to get Soulkeep out in a way that makes sense and doesn't require too much effort from the team. Because of that, I expect it to be released first and before real work on the new player experience starts. But after that, getting thins in place on that front should be one of if not the highest priority.
So realistically, work on the new player experience could begin early 2024 and could be more or less done by mid/late 2024. This would put us shortly after the Bitcoin halving and shortly before the bull run starts to really pick up steam, possibly in the area where Bitcoin starts to claim its last ATH and move back into uncharted territory. If all goes well, the SPS flywheel will have been at work for quite a while by then, DEC will be pretty comfortably pegged to 1000 DEC = $1 for a while, and SPS will have gone up slowly but steadily.
Of course it's impossible to time the market and nothing is ever guaranteed, but doesn't that sound like a perfect storm scenario again to you? People keep saying that this time is going to be different, that we'll never see the craziness of 2021 again. Thing is, people could be right. But what if they are not? What if we do get back to another perfect storm? But this time we are actually ready for the influx of new players? What if this time these new players are actually new players and not just hundreds of thousands of bots? What if we score a Binance listing during that exact time? Just look at the TLM chart once more and imagine what that spike could look like if there's a real product beyond the token and not just a mindless idle clicker as was the case with Alien Worlds.
So in my opinion, we have to be patient. Time will come when it makes sense to go for that Binance listing and it could pay off big once the time has come. But this time is not there yet, first we have to clean up our own mess. That said, I'm really excited for what's about to come and I have that feeling that things are going to become pretty wild again rather soon...
One more thing before I end the article - I'm going on a 2 week cruise on Friday, so I'll be gone from posting for a while. I will post some pictures via d.Buzz if I get to it but other than that, I'll start posting and voting again in late November.
And that's all from me for today, thank you all for reading and see you in a couple of weeks!
