Thorchain ($RUNE) has been on my radar for quite a few years now. You've seen me post about it plenty of times. I started talking about it at $0.40 and before they even had a live platform that you could use.
The idea of Thorchain - to create a cross-chain DEX rail to rule them all - has long been a fascination of mine.
This fascination has only grown with time. If you're reading this you're probably fully aware of the STEEM / HIVE situation that we faced with Binance and other major Centralized Exchanges.
My frustration with CEXes has only grown with time. There are myriad issues with them and the STEEM/HIVE hardfork was the last straw for me. I believe they will always have a place in this industry but I have been putting my money and time where my mouth is in chasing the dream of a DEX future for this industry. It will benefit LEO, HIVE and the industry as a whole in so many ways.
Thorchain has always delivered on transparency and decentralization while focusing on building a best-in-class product. These things are not easy to do in tandem. Many times, a great product requires some level of centralization.
Thorchain has its elements of centralization. There are centralized dev teams like nine realms that are responsible for a majority of the core developments.
As time has passed, however, 9r has not held on to power. We've seen that power proliferate to community members and prominent projects working within Thorchain. The platform has expanded to be so much more than any central team. This is exactly how we saw Bitcoin mature.
I am keeping a close eye on the dev side of Thorchain. Who is actively contributing to the project and how much are they actively contributing? This will be a key indicator going forward as the DEX grows and becomes a greater and greater threat to centralized players.
Thorchain's monthly trading volumes have absolutely exploded. This is a mixture of two things:
Both have worked together in tandem to lead to this massive spike in trading volume on Thorchain. I believe the world is waking up to using Thorchain as a DEX for trading with:
Again, Streaming Swaps are the tool that made this possible. The nail presented itself with the recent market volatility and the hammer is Streaming Swaps. The market has found product market fit with the Streaming Swaps feature.
In brief (since I've talked about this before), streaming swaps allow you to autonomously break up swaps into smaller transactions. These smaller transactions can then get mixed in every few blocks so that arbitragers can keep the pool prices in line.
The arbers win and the swapper wins because arbers make money between each swap and the swappers get more efficient pricing.
It's rare that you see something where it's an everyone wins scenario, but this is it. Streaming Swaps are an absolute game changer for the DEX industry. I think it's a matter of time before all DEXes adopt some variant of SS, but Thorchain has a massive lead + the L1 swaps it needs to gobble market share.
Now is Thorchain's opportunity to quickly become the #1 DEX in the world.
As you can see, Thorchain has had a massive rise among the standings of DEXes. That being said, TC still processes 3% of all DEX volume. Uniswap is processing 32% of the total.
That's a 10x potential increase in TC volume if we could see a flippening with Uniswap.
Uniswap has first-mover advantage but outside of that, I'm not sure why people would use it over Thorchain. Yes, it has deeper pools so that is also a factor.
The pool efficiency (swap price execution versus liquidity pooled) is amazing on Thorchain. As long as we continue to see the volume increase, we'll see more liquidity get pooled which will ultimately lead to even more volume and more liquidity. The black hole theory is no longer just a theory.
Two things:
RUNE is a monster in the making. It is going to gobble up the DEX industry and while its at it, gobble up CEX market share too. Perpetual swaps are coming along with order books.
I suspect that this time next year, Thorchain will have every feature a CEX has and then all the L1 swapping features + DEX features + lending + .....
Thorchain has everything. In 1 year, it'll probably look like a CEX depending on the interface you use. But everything will happen on the DEX with better price execution and a better UI/UX.
In terms of price action, I fully suspect we'll see RUNE cross $70 in the next cycle. That's a $25B market cap. It's already doing $5B per month in trading volumes. This is anything but far fetched.
$320 is a number I came across when considering a flippening of Uniswap's volume. Will RUNE hit $320? Nearly a 80x from current price?
I also don't see this as impossible, but it's definitely a good headline to read. For now, let's focus on that $25B Market Cap figure.
In terms of getting LEO and HIVE listed there, I have a lot of conversations in the works. You've probably seen me actively talking about Thorchain a lot lately. There's a plan for everything.
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