With 2022 about to end, I take a look at the Hive blockchain and my place on it. General stats about Hive come from Arcange’s post, which you can see here. Based on the amount of active users, currently at around 350 000 a month, we are still an underground Hive movement. That’s a very small usage and reach globally. And the blockchain has been around for about six years already, first as Steem and then as Hive. I opened my first account in 2017, about five years ago.
Slightly top-heavy centralized HP
So we have not grown as a platform very much. That said, usage peaked at around 700 000 monthly users at the top of the cryptocurrency bull market in November 2021. Hive coin was worth a lot more and people were earning much more for their daily posts.
Hive usage is cyclic like the market
As the crypto market slumped all through 2022, so did usage, which is natural. Human engagement dwindled as incentive and potential earnings dwindled. The same cycle occurred during the 2017 bull market and subsequent decline. The positive news is that the 2017 monthly usage only peaked at around 250 000 users, and although usage has dropped about 50% since our last high in November 2021, still our current monthly usage is above that old peak of around 250 000.
Notice usage has grown though blog posting and curating has stayed flat
So Hive has grown and old resistance in now support when it comes to amount of users. Still, it is a drop in the ocean by global standards. We are a hidden gem and an unknown social media platform. Sadly many accounts open but never make the next step to even start posting. I was only able to encourage about four people to sign up, out of my circle of influence, yet only one of them continued posting. And many others who post for a while end up leaving as the value of Hive token drops by 70-90% during the bear market phase of the cycle.
Splinterlands and gaming helps onboarding
Currently there are about 4000 posts published a day (according to Arcange's post linked above), which is not much. It appears that many of the new onboarded accounts are Splinterlands gamers who are here for the play-to-earn game, and not to post original creative content. And that’s fine. Many thanks to Splinterlands for the successful evolution and contribution to the Hive blockchain. I have my Splinterlands account at a beginners level and aim to learn and grow there on the battlefield.
When we see that in total around 2.5 million accounts have been opened over the lifetime of the Steem/Hive blockchain, we can see that the attrition rate is quite high. Many have left, due to varying reasons of course. So we have small onboarding and even smaller retention of new users. I remember how challenging the first steps were for me when starting out on the platform. I only persevered because I already wrote articles as a pastime, and because I was so passionate about cryptocurrency in general. So I can understand why our retention is so small and why so few people actually make it to become regular bloggers.
And this may not change much sadly, unless there is a general decentralized social media revolution in society in 2023. Tokenized social media may still need to explode into the mindset of society. I am hopeful, especially as CBDCs emerge and all money goes digital. And with the rise of the Metaverse and tokenized gaming, we will hopefully see further adoption along the lines that we saw with Slinterlands. There is still massive room for growth and upside potential.
My personal situation on Hive
Now on a personal front, I am experiencing a significant slump this month on Hive. My payouts have dropped significantly because the one whale that voted for my posts no longer does so. Also I went from getting 600 upvotes a post to 60, for example. I presume that most of those upvotes are not actual readers. I highly doubt 600 people are looking at my post daily, especially since there are usually only one or two comments. They are probably delegated upvotes that come along with some whale voter.
So in the gamified system on Hive, I was never under any illusion that I had a big readership. I published because I was incentivised by the earnings from upvotes, even if those earnings only came from one or two whale upvotes and their delegations. I don’t need to feel heard, I simply like to earn. Now that the one last whale is no longer upvoting me, my earnings have collapsed. Maybe he or she doesn’t like my subject matter. It’s too radical. Even my little happy holiday photo posts are boycotted. So I speculated.
To find out more, I went to have a look at the whale upvoter’s wallet and noticed that they are powering down, starting three weeks ago. That is not a good sign. Who would power down during the bottom of a bear market when Hive token is so undervalued? I then looked at Arcange’s stats and noticed a correlation. Overall upvotes or payouts on Hive blockchain have been dropping significantly since three weeks ago.
Total daily payouts on Hive went from about 200 000 on 1 December down to 120 000 by 23 December. The main drop was from 12 December, correlating with the power down of my whale supporter. Is there a correlation or is it a coincidence? Whatever it is, my personal journey on Hive has hit a wall. I no longer have the incentive to post since I no longer receive the upvotes.
As a result, I will probably not bother to post much any more, at least for now. This happened once before and I took a break of a few months. But since I like writing and blogging, I returned to try again and things picked back up, somewhat. Now my support or curation has been dropped again, so I will re-evaluate my input on Hive.
How is your progress on hive looking? Are you also seeing the significant drop in upvotes and payouts that are shown in the overall Hive stats for this month? Maybe my amateur reading of the situation is purely subjective, I’m open to some clarity in the comments – all two of them. And thank you to the two readers who actually read this stuff. You are a dying minority, based on Arcange’s stats and my personal experience on Hive.
Centralization vs Decentralization
Add to that the highly centralized condition of Hive, with only a few dozen witnesses or node operators, who are also holding the majority of the HP, and you get a slightly unhealthy ecosystem. That said, even Ethereum is highly centralized with whales at the top and devs holding the majority of the stake. It’s top heavy and not at all what Satoshi Nakamoto wanted with Bitcoin, the king of cryptocurrency. Anyway, you work with what’s available.
I believe my one last whale supporter might be powering down for good reason and that the massive drop in overall payouts across the entire Hive blockchain this month is nothing to worry about. Hive token can still 10x from current value of $0.30. The ATH is about $3 and I dream that we will have more massive adoption and reach new ATHs by the peak of the next bull market cycle around 2025. But I won’t hold my breath. Even though most of my crypto eggs are on this Hive blockchain, for what it’s worth.
(images from 