Over the last 2 months bitcoin has been remarkably stable, unusually stable in fact.
It has pretty much traded in a range between $9k and $10k the entire time with only a few brief surges outside that range the entire time.
Check it out:
(Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-touted-to-end-stagnation-in-style-surging-to-new-high)
Over the last month it has gotten especially stable (boring?) recording some of the lowest volatility levels ever recorded on bitcoin.
We have seen daily bollinger bands record some of their narrowest readings ever which is a sign of volatility, or should I say a lack there of.
I think the reason bitcoin hasn't gone up yet is a couple reasons.
For one, bitcoin dropped down to around $3,800 back in March.
Since that time it has rallied close to 3x in just a couple months.
That is a very big move in a very short period of time and I think the market has been consolidating that move up.
Markets tend to consolidate in terms of price or in terms of time. Since the price hasn't really retraced all that much, I would venture to say that this consolidation has been in terms of time.
That being said, we may be about to leave this consolidation period...
Check this out:
(Source: https://twitter.com/hashtag/bitcoin?lang=en)
That's the MACD on the daily chart of bitcoin. As you can see it is showing a bullish cross below the zero bound for the first time months.
The last time that happened was on the March rebound after the big selloff, a move that saw bitcoin rally some $3k after the MACD cross...
Everyone keeps asking why bitcoin hasn't mooned yet?
They say things like "the halving just happened that everyone has been waiting for, yet the price has been mostly sideways ever since".
My response to them would be, "you must be new to bitcoin crypto".
You see, bitcoin is currently acting very much like it did after it's last halving.
It saw a runup into the halving, just like this time, and then post halving it consolidated for a couple months before starting it's move higher.
It ultimately peaked about 18 months post halving.
Which means, we have quite a bit of time for bitcoin to run.
A similar pattern would have bitcoin peaking end of 2021.
So, the next time someone asks you why bitcoin isn't running yet, tell em to be patient, it will.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
