I think you forgot the terms of the bet... first of all you said depression, not recession. Second of all your chart shows the second quarter INCREASING in economic output, which wouldn't even validate the definition of a recession, though again, we were talking about a depression.
Here's your own words for context:
So what exactly is the bet?
I am betting that the American economy will be in a state of DEPRESSION by July 1 2021 - Depression as in a 10% or greater decline in economic output as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters
Revising that on July 1 2021 gives us the first two quarters of 2021 to look at.
Catch is, I suspect it won't be easy to get reliable figures on July 1st, but we can have a search around.
I expect to see a chart like this:
If I lose 100 Hive and Hive goes up to $5 I'll probably think "bugger, I just chucked away $500 by being a cocky prick..." (I'm picking Hive to go up to $5 and Leo to $7 in the next year)
But on the other hand I'm reasonably confident of winning, so it should be fun!
I'm curious to see which side of the fence other people would be on.
A question from@jrcornel:
Q - "if you get an 11% decline in Q1 but only an 8% decline in Q2 I win?"
A - Yes, sticking within this definition of a depression, that would only be a recession - America is already in recession now, so it wouldn't be much of a bet - yes I would only win if it declines more than 10% two quarters in a row. And I'm still confident! (even though I can lose this bet on April 1, but you can't)
@frot/taking-a-huge-gamble-on-hive
The latest posted GDP data can be seen here btw: https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/
The long and short of it, you bet we would be in a depression by end of June, which we are clearly not. Which means you did not win the bet and you owe me 100 HIVE. I do remember upvoting your post with a decent sized upvote though, which should help with the payout. ;)
You can send the 100 HIVE to the
RE: IS TRYING TO FAIL AN EFFECTIVE TACTIC?