TAKING A HUGE GAMBLE ON HIVE

Back in August 2016 I started out on Steemit as @sift666 because some prick had already taken the name @sift so I added 666 on the end hoping to sound all heavy and satanic, but it was like arriving first at a party and having nobody to talk to, and then being asked to go into the kitchen to cut cheese into cubes and stab them with toothpicks like some sort of sadomasochist freak in a gimp mask.

People bleat about the lack of engagement on Hive, but they have no fucking idea. My first posts on Steemit got about five votes, and nobody had any Steem Power so they earned a big fat zero. If I got any comments at all I got all sweaty and had to go and have a shower.

On one of my first posts I got a comment from some guy called @jrcornel. In fact he was one of the first people on Steemit I ever followed. But we have never really interacted all that much over the years, simply because we are not really on the same page about a bunch of things. I suspect he doesn’t even follow me and probably thinks I am an idiot. He once called me a “conspiracy theorist” and seemed to think that was in some way a bad thing...

On Leofinance he is a bit of a player, with his posts constantly showing up in the most popular. He does a lot of posts about Bitcoin, and I agree with him up to a point that Bitcoin is looking good at the moment. But beyond that, even sticking to things financial, we seem to disagree about a few fundamentals.

For example, I think the American economy is heading down the shitter, but he thinks it is about to rebound any minute. Yesterday he came to the end of the road and decided to have it out with me. “Look punk” he said, “put your money where your mouth is and take a bet on it” “OK” I said, “Let’s bet 10 Hive”. “I don’t get out of bed to piss on 10 Hive you pussy” he replied, “make it 100”

Now well out of my comfort zone and getting a bit edgy, I clarified the terms of the bet, and against my better judgement, we agreed to go along with it. This is a crazy punt, a real make or break deal, but sometimes we all have to put our lives on the line and take a wild risk.

So what exactly is the bet?

I am betting that the American economy will be in a state of DEPRESSION by July 1 2021 - Depression as in a 10% or greater decline in economic output as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters

Revising that on July 1 2021 gives us the first two quarters of 2021 to look at.

Catch is, I suspect it won't be easy to get reliable figures on July 1st, but we can have a search around.

I expect to see a chart like this:

If I lose 100 Hive and Hive goes up to $5 I'll probably think "bugger, I just chucked away $500 by being a cocky prick..." (I'm picking Hive to go up to $5 and Leo to $7 in the next year)

But on the other hand I'm reasonably confident of winning, so it should be fun!

I'm curious to see which side of the fence other people would be on.

A question from @jrcornel:

Q - "if you get an 11% decline in Q1 but only an 8% decline in Q2 I win?"

A - Yes, sticking within this definition of a depression, that would only be a recession - America is already in recession now, so it wouldn't be much of a bet - yes I would only win if it declines more than 10% two quarters in a row. And I'm still confident! (even though I can lose this bet on April 1, but you can't)

The joys of being a contrarian - never fear long odds!