These thoughts were inspired by Peter Schwartz’s book The Art of the Long View
Driving forces, what are they?
Driving forces are the key elements that drive any scenario. A scenario is inherently an event that changes from state A to be state B. Change occurs in a situation, location, or person. This change is motion and motion must of a source. This source of motion in any scenario is the driving force(s) associated with it.
Why do they matter?
Driving forces reveal where a specific scenario receives it input. Let me a use a visualization to explain.
In the above image there is an event. It has four sides to represent four potential categories of driving forces that will impact the event. I will note here that there is an infinite number of ways to categorize driving forces as well as define which will impact an event. In reality, this shape should not be a square rather a far more complex geometric shape with many sides.
In analyzing driving forces, we should first look for which “side” of the event the driving force is coming from. This is important because with an understanding of it’s origin, we can understand the possible outcome a driving force will have. For example, economic forces will generally affect economic related functions in our business such as financing and taxes. On the other hand, social cultural forces could have serious implications for our marketing and sales division.
A driving force is most likely a blend of many categories. The perimeter of the square above is better thought of as a continuum between four points. For example, being half-way between the economic and political categories would create a unique force.
What can I use them for?
Driving forces help us understand the why behind past. Analyzing the past is purely a process of analyzing outcomes. When we read about history, we are reading about the outcomes that resulted from complex scenarios. Two Steves founded a great company named after a fruit, but why did they do it? An analysis of the driving forces will help us understand the why of that event.
Driving forces are what build the future. What will happen in the next hour, day, or year? Such questions are inherently abstract and borderline voodoo. However, there are so many individuals paid millions of dollars to answer those exact kind of questions. I propose those individuals use a model similar to the visual above to find, define, and refine driving forces that are shaping the future.
