Trump May Have Won?

According to the Associated Press election map just before 1 AM Pacific, odds are good Donald Trump managed re-election and has become the second president elected to two nonconsecutive terms. This may change by morning, but let's assume for the sake of giving me something to write about that this is the outcome.

I am skeptical of democracy and the way politics, partisanship, and nationalism have been molded into a religious fervor. I reject the legitimacy of nation-states. That said, I think I can make a case for Trump being the lesser evil.

I'm not a fan of Trump. He has a bad track record from his first term on war, spending, COVID, and so much more. He's a businessman embedded in all the corruption corporate America offers. His personal life does not even come close to striving for virtues I admire. However, he has managed to cobble together a coalition of largely anti-war Democrats and former democrats like RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard, libertarian-leaning Republicans like Vivek Ramaswamy, and may have learned to avoid some of the worst influences from actually fascistic elements of the GOP.

I am absolutely disgusted by Harris. Trump may have baggage, but this woman is an entire train. She personifies the abuse of the war on drugs. Both she and Walz have condemned free speech. She can't differentiate herself from Biden's policies despite trying to present herself as somehow also bringing change and joy. She leaps to make blatantly false accusations for political gain. She received and then campaigned on endorsements from Dick and Liz Cheney, the Republican war hawks Democrats rightly condemned 20 years ago. I may not be eager to see Trump win, but I admit a deep desire to see Harris lose.

Suppose Cheeto Mussolini sheds his ego enough to listen to his new advisors and follows up on some promises. There could be a lot of good.

• Free Ross Ulbricht! Pardon Edward Snowden!
• Eliminate income taxes on wages!
• Actually open negotiations for peace instead of just funneling arms and money into foreign wars!
• Crypto-friendly policies and deregulation may emerge.

There are downsides, though.

• Will he actually cut spending and eliminate federal overreach? He didn't drain the swamp last time, and he ballooned the deficits and debt then.
• Might his sense of machismo spark more war instead of negotiating peace? This is the guy who pointlessly bombed an Iranian general in Iraq, remember.
• How will he cope with the deeper economic problems still looming over our heads, including the deepest inverted yield curve ever, stagflation, economic bubbles, and unfunded liabilities? He's in a bad spot, and his critics will eagerly pin all the blame for coming problems on him.
• The Democrat extremist wing may redouble their riots mostly peaceful protests in response despite calling Trump supporters "insurrectionists" for the last 4 years when they did little more than walk through strangely unsecured doors.

And what if Harris wins after all? With the popular vote and electoral college both appearing to favor Trump for now, will Republicans believe it? Personally, I'm OK with gridlock if Harris wins but Republicans hold Congress. The less government can accomplish, the less they can violate us with more bad laws. "Bipartisan agreement" means we're screwed, and single-party control means bad stuff is likely to be imposed without opposition.

Anyway, it's late, and I have a long day coming up tomorrow in the morning. After writing for 40 minutes or so, the map hasn't really changed. What are your best-case and worst-case scenarios? If Trump wins both the electoral college and the popular vote, what signal does that send? Are we living through the next major change in the American party system with populism on the right versus militarism on the left?