The resistance level of $4700 was broken with strength! which makes us go back to the chart and revise our counts. The TRUTH HURTS, my count was wrong! I'm not denying that by any means. But this happens to the best of us and we knew this was a possibility. Since $3500 we provided a count that went to $4400-4600 where we expected a final correction was likely. We mentioned a break of $4700 would make this less probable. But let me be clear less probable and not probable are two different scenarios. $5000-$5100 is the likely target to complete wave v in the short term cycle and wave 3 in a mid term cycle. At this point we should likely get a pullback to the $4200ish area, where upon a breakout of consolidation I will make a trade for the final 5th wave. However it must be confirmed, as a breakdown below $3900 makes it more probable that a pullback to $2200 happens and that X extended to form a double top .
The market as a whole pulled back today with only 2 out of 20 coins on the bittrex exchange with the highest volume being positive. This is the second large correction in a row in which BTC moved up but the alt-coins lost market value. Almost 7 Billion (9%) of the total alt-coin market value was wiped off the books. From the high of 97 billion combined we have shaved 25 billion (more than 25%) off the market. Yet bitcoin is back to it's market cap pre correction. So what does this tell me.
1) No new money is coming into the space money is leaving!
2) Investors that were holding alt coins are now selling due to FOLYA
3) Money is flowing from alt-coins to Bitcoins
4) There still is a possibility that Bitcoin sells off next as investors turn to fiat if a pullback happens unexpectedly
In the long term. A market correction needs to happen in order for new money to flow into the space. On the lower chart I have revised our long term outlook from $8,000 to $11,000. (from $7000 to $10,000 prior). When and where it happens only the market knows.
As I closed all my trades a couple days ago I am sitting on about 30% in cash and I have added a little bit of OMG 1.69% and NEO 1.27% and will look to add more to my core holdings including XRP LTC 0.06% ETH and DASH, but I'm being cautious right now. I still am not adding to BTC as the risk reward still favors a hold and wait approach. I'm not selling here but I'm not buying either. I will likely trade a setup where we marked 4 on the chart ONLY if we break to the upside and I will post at the time I enter.
I am monitoring the market and as this is my first time (along with many others) going through a correction I am taking notes on the patterns and printing out charts to put in my binder. All in all the odds in Vegas have flipped from 60% BEAR to 60% BULL . But be aware we can also correct. $4100 will be a critical level to monitor.
