I have never set foot in a business school. My background is in law and economics. Psychology is all made up. And yet, I am attempting to apply all of this to try and understand what is happening in the Cryptomarket. I believe that we cannot examine this market in a vacuum and larger market trends must be considered. The stock market has been gripped by massive fear and there is an undeniable recession on the way. Bonds are next. What hit the DOW recently wasn't even the start of the recession - that was the hiccup as people noticed what was going on.
I firmly believe that things are going to get bad. Very bad. And when things get bad, the Fed, ECB, whomever is controlling the monetary supply, does what idiots in charge of printing presses do: they run them at full capacity. Kind of like Tether, but for a whole nation. On the whole, Cryptocurrencies offer refuge from the instability of traditional markets.
"But Icriu, look at that volatility!"
Enough. If modern markets were not controlled by massive funds run by trading bots programmed not to respond to normal market stimuli such as, some company's CEO was caught in a necrophiliac bordello in SoHo, or OSI Systems' balance sheets are completely made up and halfway filled in with crayon, you would see this kind of rapid evaluation changes happening there, too. [Half-source: ]
A lot of the predictions about Bitcoin trending down to 5k are based on Elliot Wave analysis - the main theory being that markets are subject to behavioral psychology and that there are natural patterns. Five waves of greed and three of fear on the way up - the inverse on the way down.
Since I have no idea how to do TA, I think it best to illustrate this in the most rudimentary form possible:
I think we are seeing a completed cycle. The first big dip in January has often been ignored in the EW-based analyses I have read and I have never seen a rational justification for disregarding it. Including that first, unmarked peak, we have already hit five waves of fear. Now, the market at large is controlled by fear at the moment, which might spark uncertainty in the Cryptomarket and delay the rally, but I think that people understand that the Cryptomarket is not as tied to these debt-troubled institutions and will seek refuge in it from some of the impending fallout. Perhaps not the big institutional investors, but as Robinhood begins to induct more young people into the market, the transfusion of cash should become noticeable.
If you don't use TradingView, what a shame. It's a great site with a lot of tools built into it. But, as with any social media platform, it can become an echochamber for fear and emotional irrationalposting.
Please yell at me in the comments and tell me never to do TA again. I have a lot more memecharts to post.
