Crypto market views summary:
- Past
- Present
- Key Themes
- Price
- Future
Past
- Crypto experienced the largest bubble in financial markets' history.
- Bubble caused by retail euphoria, crypto virality, large players front-running CME futures open, and potentially market manipulation (i.e. USDT).
Past
- There's evidence of market manipulation, fake volume, pump-and-dump schemes, and shilling of vaporware by well known crypto promoters.
- Market crashed as inflow of new investors dwindled and regulators worldwide started an onslaught.
Present:
- Most crypto is vaporware (aka *hitcoins).
- Retail investors got burnt.
- Large players, early investors, and crypto developers and founders dumped on retail (e.g. LTC's creator Satoshi).
Present:
- HODL is the most damaging meme in history. The result of getting financial advice from those who don't know about finance and/or benefit financially from hodlers. (i.e. misaligned incentives).
Present:
- Institutional investors have not "arrived" as a result of the bubble, lack of custody solutions, and inability to quantify a value proposition.
- Hyperbitconization is not a logical value proposition.
Present:
- Current miners are still profitable ex-amortization (i.e. sunk costs). There's plenty of room below until miners start turning rigs off.
Key Themes:
- potential rat race to the bottom as ICOs (and some exchanges) sell holdings to cover present and future operational costs
vs
- is price low enough to entice some large institutional investor to go in big.
Price:
- Markets reverse in three ways:
.following capitulation (e.g. Dec/22/17).
.following a strong trend-setting upwards break (e.g. Apr/12/18).
.by slowly rolling over.
- Capitulation makes buying into a reversal "easy". A rolling-over reversal is the toughest.
Price:
- Bitcoin crashed hard in the last month, yet market has not seen capitulation yet. Market direction is uncertain.
- Trying to figure where will the market stop falling, its bottom, is beyond fruitless. Those charting and calling bottoms are best ignored.
Price:
- BTC has extremely well defined resistance areas.
- Books are so empty and volume so low that a whale can make a >5% pop/drop within a few hours.
- I'd expect more 2-way action now and still lower lows eventually.
- Wouldn't be surprised to see 8200 within weeks.
Future:
- A $BTC ETF will launch, making crypto go viral again.
- Security tokens will go mainstream.
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